362
FXUS64 KBMX 130007
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
707 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Broad high pressure persists today and tomorrow across Central AL
with a dry air mass in place for much of the area. High
temperatures today will be met in the next few hours ranging from
the low to mid 90s. Highs tomorrow could reach into the mid to
upper 90s for much of the area. A few of our warmer locations
could get close or hit 100 degrees; however heat indices will be
kept in check by the dry air. Though we shouldn`t need any head
advisories on Saturday, 95-100 degrees isn`t exactly comfortable,
especially in direct sunlight, so anyone with outdoor activities
should plan for the hot weather.

25/Owen

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

Key messages:

- Hot conditions continue Sunday into early next week, with
  increasing humidity levels. Heat indices at or above 105 will be
  possible Monday through Wednesday, with the highest values on
  Tuesday.

- A wetter and less hot pattern develops for the latter half of
  the week.

Two ridges remain in place on Sunday, once extending from the Gulf
northeastward to southern AL and GA, and a stronger one near the
Four Corners. A positively tilted weak trough/weakness in the
ridge will extend from TN southwestward to the ArkLaTex. Another
hot day is expected with temperatures near 100F but dew points
should mix out enough to keep heat indices under 105 except in a
couple isolated spots. Moisture will increase just enough for
isolated convection in our southern counties, potentially up into
our northwest counties with the weakness in the ridge. The Gulf
ridge weakens somewhat Monday/Tuesday, with some spread in the
guidance regarding the placement of weakness(es) to its northwest.
This will play a role in chances for convection and high
temperatures. But in general expect an uptick in scattered
convection each day, with an increase in dew points resulting in
potential for heat indices near 105, with the highest chances of
exceeding 105 on Tuesday. A trough will amplify near the Great
Lakes Wednesday through the end of the week, while a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Pooling moisture will result in an
increase in dew points and rain chances, but decreasing high
temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024

VFR conditions will be present for the 24 hour forecast across C
AL.

Winds will become light/variable to near calm overnight with
subsidence in the area and will generally remain light/variable
into much of Sat as well. A few spots may see WNW-N winds during
peak afternoon heating/mixing at 5-7kts. Cloud cover will be
minimal, mainly fair weather cumulus with heating. There will be a
chance for an isolated afternoon diurnal shower/tstorm across the
SRN half of AL, but it will be too low to mention for any TAF
sites.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend.
Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent
range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances
of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more
humid air mass returning next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  98  69  99 /   0  10  10  10
Anniston    71  96  71  97 /   0  10  10  10
Birmingham  74  98  75  99 /   0  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  72  98  74  99 /   0  10  10  20
Calera      72  97  73  99 /   0  10   0  10
Auburn      72  96  74  98 /   0  10  10  20
Montgomery  72  98  74  99 /   0  10  10  20
Troy        72  98  73  99 /   0  20  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25/Owen
LONG TERM....32/Davis
AVIATION...08