Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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688 FXUS64 KBMX 130134 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 834 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of Tonight) Issued at 830 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024 The forecast is in good shape with no major changes made for tonight. We continue with another rain free night and only some residual mid level clouds from coastal convection meandering NNEWD across C AL. No convection is anticipated across C AL overnight with general subsidence in control, resulting in light/variable to calm winds. Look for lows tonight again a little milder than last night, but still generally in the upper 60s to the lower 70s as our airmass slowly modifies. 08 Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024 Broad high pressure persists today and tomorrow across Central AL with a dry air mass in place for much of the area. High temperatures today will be met in the next few hours ranging from the low to mid 90s. Highs tomorrow could reach into the mid to upper 90s for much of the area. A few of our warmer locations could get close or hit 100 degrees; however heat indices will be kept in check by the dry air. Though we shouldn`t need any head advisories on Saturday, 95-100 degrees isn`t exactly comfortable, especially in direct sunlight, so anyone with outdoor activities should plan for the hot weather. 25/Owen && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 327 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024 Key messages: - Hot conditions continue Sunday into early next week, with increasing humidity levels. Heat indices at or above 105 will be possible Monday through Wednesday, with the highest values on Tuesday. - A wetter and less hot pattern develops for the latter half of the week. Two ridges remain in place on Sunday, once extending from the Gulf northeastward to southern AL and GA, and a stronger one near the Four Corners. A positively tilted weak trough/weakness in the ridge will extend from TN southwestward to the ArkLaTex. Another hot day is expected with temperatures near 100F but dew points should mix out enough to keep heat indices under 105 except in a couple isolated spots. Moisture will increase just enough for isolated convection in our southern counties, potentially up into our northwest counties with the weakness in the ridge. The Gulf ridge weakens somewhat Monday/Tuesday, with some spread in the guidance regarding the placement of weakness(es) to its northwest. This will play a role in chances for convection and high temperatures. But in general expect an uptick in scattered convection each day, with an increase in dew points resulting in potential for heat indices near 105, with the highest chances of exceeding 105 on Tuesday. A trough will amplify near the Great Lakes Wednesday through the end of the week, while a cold front approaches from the northwest. Pooling moisture will result in an increase in dew points and rain chances, but decreasing high temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI JUL 12 2024 VFR conditions will be present for the 24 hour forecast across C AL. Winds will become light/variable to near calm overnight with subsidence in the area and will generally remain light/variable into much of Sat as well. A few spots may see WNW-N winds during peak afternoon heating/mixing at 5-7kts. Cloud cover will be minimal, mainly fair weather cumulus with heating. There will be a chance for an isolated afternoon diurnal shower/tstorm across the SRN half of AL, but it will be too low to mention for any TAF sites. Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend. Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more humid air mass returning next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 98 69 99 / 0 10 10 10 Anniston 71 96 71 97 / 0 10 10 10 Birmingham 74 98 75 99 / 0 10 0 10 Tuscaloosa 72 98 74 99 / 0 10 10 20 Calera 73 97 73 99 / 0 10 0 10 Auburn 73 96 74 98 / 0 10 10 20 Montgomery 73 98 74 99 / 0 10 10 20 Troy 71 98 73 99 / 0 20 10 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08/25/Owen LONG TERM....32/Davis AVIATION...08