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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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875 FXUS64 KBMX 130827 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 327 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 251 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 The big weather story for central Alabama in the foreseeable future will be the heat. An upper level ridge builds into the southeast states, which will help push high temperatures well into the 90s and close to triple digits over the weekend. Initially, dewpoints should be low enough today so that heat indices will stay below Heat Advisory criteria. However, dewpoints start creeping up on Sunday, and we will be borderline Advisory criteria. Will give things another model run or two to gain more confidence, before pulling the trigger on an Advisory for Sunday. The slow ramp up in dewpoints will also mean a similarly slow ramp up in convective coverage. Highest POPs over the weekend will be in the far south, which could see some seabreeze initiated storms in the late afternoons. /61/ && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 Low amplitude upper-level flow will stretch across the CONUS at the beginning of the period featuring a ridge across the West and weak troughing across the East. However, low-level ridging will remain positioned across the Southeast where an ongoing period of above-average temperatures supports expanding drought across the Tennessee Valley. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s are forecast Monday and Tuesday. Making matters worse, mean low-level flow will favor a southwesterly direction allowing for increasing boundary layer moisture. PWs will rise toward 2.0" with dewpoints in the low 70s. Thus, daytime heat index values will likely meet/exceed advisory criteria. Our saving grace will be the increasing chance for afternoon convection owing to increasing moisture/instability. Furthermore, convective coverage could be enhanced by the presence of a subtle upper-level low progged near the ArkLaMiss Monday and Tuesday. PoPs were increased a bit, but still remain below the "likely" category until confidence increases that we`ll see meaningful coverage. Temperatures begin a slow (and merciful) decrease mid to late next week in association with a more prominent mid- to upper-level trough progged to advance across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. This will feature embedded shortwaves that will swing closer to our region on Thursday as the pattern aloft becomes more amplified. Meanwhile, moisture values will increase a bit more Wednesday, generally ahead of an associated front that approaches the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. With the aid of synoptic forcing, convective rain chances are 60-70% for Wed/Thu, and hopefully this will provide beneficial rains to the forecast area. Rain chances remain elevated along the progressing front into Friday, with drier air moving into the area across the north. It doesn`t sound like much, but there could be enough mid-level flow (around 20-25 kts) for a few stronger storms on these days as well, should other mesoscale factors work out. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2024 Will maintain VFR weather conditions for central Alabama terminals through at least the next 24 hour forecast period. Computer models continue to paint a dry picture across the area. Any thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon should stay well south of TCL and MGM. One or two places (ANB or MGM) could see some light fog development briefly before sunrise, but I just don`t have the confidence in that occurring to include it in the TAF for now. Otherwise, just scattered afternoon cumulus and light winds. /61/ && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions will remain in place through the weekend. Min RHs on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30 to 35 percent range, though winds should remain generally light to calm. Chances of isolated showers and storms return on Sunday, with a more humid air mass returning next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 97 71 98 72 / 0 0 10 10 Anniston 96 73 97 73 / 0 0 20 10 Birmingham 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 20 10 Tuscaloosa 98 74 98 74 / 10 0 20 10 Calera 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 20 10 Auburn 97 74 97 75 / 10 10 20 10 Montgomery 99 74 99 75 / 10 10 30 10 Troy 98 74 98 74 / 20 10 30 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....40/Sizemore AVIATION...61