186
FXUS64 KBMX 171755
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024

As expected, earlier initiation of scattered to numerous showers and
storms has begun. An upper-level low positioned over eastern Texas
is dampening the ridge and resulting in some weak low-level
troughing over the Lower MS River Valley. West to southwesterly flow
is providing ample moisture across the Deep South which is providing
the means for higher than normal PoPs. A cold front will also move
southeast into the area overnight and through tomorrow associated
with a low pressure system over eastern Quebec. The front will
provide additional lift for widespread showers and storms tomorrow.
DCAPE is hovering around 800-1000 J/kg, but could be as high as 1100
J/kg in some areas, so storms will likely be gusty and could produce
some isolated tree damage. Heavy downpours are also expected and
rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches could fall in a short period of time.
The enhanced coverage of rainfall should help to bring heat indices
down despite dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Will continue the
Heat Advisory in the west for now, but may be able to cancel it
early as storms continue to expand this afternoon. Shouldn`t need a
Heat Advisory tomorrow with highs generally in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2024

* Wet, unsettled weather with periods of storms expected for the
  next several days. Daytime temperatures forecast to remain
  slightly below normal.

Medium-range guidance and ensembles are pretty consistent with an
upper-level pattern favoring daily convective rain chances through
the next several days. This will feature, generally speaking, a
ridge across the West, a trough across the central CONUS/Lower
Mississippi Valley, and a blocking ridge across the far western
Atlantic. This configuration will allow for the continued
presence of southwesterly flow aloft, and southerly to
southwesterly low-level flow off the Gulf. These low-level flow
vectors promote moist, unstable air to remain situated across the
Deep South for several days. Temperatures through the entire
period should stay a few degrees below normal.

For now, best PoPs are along/south of I-59 for Friday due to a
preceding frontal passage allowing for drier air across the
Tennessee Valley. This will persist somewhat into Saturday before
the primary trough gradually shifts west on Sunday with additional
disturbances aloft moving south across the Plains. Moisture should
then be allowed to advect back to the north along with the
meandering, somewhat diffuse surface front. Thus, Sunday through
Wednesday feature 60-70% PoPs area-wide since progged synoptic
features change very little due to blocking. Ongoing drought
conditions are probably in position to improve, which is good
news, though we`ll now need to watch for day-to-day localized
flooding into early/mid next week depending upon mesoscale
considerations. The synoptic signal is certainly there for a large
footprint of rainfall across the entire Southeast.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024

Convection has already begun affecting TAF sites this afternoon.
Expect a rather active afternoon with aviation impacts as storms
continue to expand across the area. Activity will generally diminish
after 02-03Z. Some low ceilings may develop across the west early
tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into the area. For now, it
looks like MVFR ceilings will reach TCL then ceilings rise
through the morning with additional convective development
possible from 16-18Z. Surface winds are from the south-southwest
at 5 to 8 kts, but higher gusts could occasionally occur from
outflow boundaries.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increased rain chances continue through the week, as a front
stalls across the region. Scattered to numerous convective
coverage can be expected once again this afternoon, with even
greater coverage Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values will be
above 50 percent each afternoon through the end of the week, with
southwesterly 20 ft winds at 4-6 mph. We and unsettled weather is
expected for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  89  67  86 /  50  70  40  60
Anniston    72  88  69  86 /  30  70  50  70
Birmingham  72  89  70  86 /  50  70  50  60
Tuscaloosa  73  90  70  86 /  40  80  60  60
Calera      73  89  71  86 /  40  80  60  70
Auburn      73  90  71  86 /  40  80  60  80
Montgomery  73  93  72  87 /  40  80  70  80
Troy        72  93  70  87 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Marengo-Pickens-Sumter-
Tuscaloosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...86/Martin