Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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144 FXUS64 KBMX 041734 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 Upper level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this morning, with a surface ridge extending southward along the Atlantic Coast, angling around the southern end of the Appalachians. Well to our north, within broad troughing across the northern CONUS, a shortwave is moving out of the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Today, the shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi River Valley with its associated surface low strengthening over the Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging over the Deep South begins to shift southward as troughing expands southward through the Plains. Not much change in airmass is expected for Central Alabama, from yesterday. For your Fourth of July celebrations, expect highs in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s this afternoon. Heat indices will range from 100-106F, and a Heat Advisory will remain in place. With slightly lower heights over the area, isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this afternoon, with coverage decreasing with sunset. As the trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow, a front will approach the area from the northwest Friday morning. With PWs around 2.5inches, decreasing mid level heights, and better, although still weak, winds aloft, more widespread showers and storms are expected. As moisture pools south of the front, some locations could reach heat indices of 105-107F briefly before rain provides some relief. Model trends show less of the area hitting 105F on Friday, and with the uncertainty with rainfall timing, will hold off on expanding Heat Advisory for now. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 An amplified pattern for July will persist through the forecast period, with a trough over the north-central CONUS downstream of a strong ridge over the western CONUS. A weakness will extend down into the south-central CONUS, with Hurricane Beryl eventually spinning down in the Rio Grande vicinity. A subtropical ridge will persist over the eastern Gulf and southeast Atlantic coast, though not as strong as it has been recently. This will place Central Alabama under moist southwesterly flow aloft. Most of the guidance has been trending further south with the frontal passage Saturday though some guidance has recently trended back the other way. Therefore, did not make any big changes to the forecast over the weekend. A still warm but dry air mass will be in place north of the front, while south of the front a tropical-like air mass will persists with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Another heat advisory may be needed for some of the southeast counties Saturday depending on the progression of the front. The front should lift back to the north by Monday with the tropical-like air mass that has already been in place returning to all of Central Alabama. This combined with weak waves moving through the base of the trough should result in above average chances of showers and storms next week, though one wild card will be if the ridge over the eastern Gulf ends up being stronger than currently forecast. The increased coverage of showers and storms should help keep heat indices just below 105. 32/Davis && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024 VFR conditions will persist across much of the area this afternoon and across the south-central areas overnight. Scattered clouds with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across much of the area this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential is too low to include at any site but mentioned showers through 22z followed by a prod30 through 04z tonight. Expect a decrease in the activity overnight except for far northwest where a surface front will approach the area, resulting in more clouds with continued isolated showers overnight, expanding in coverage and area further southeast through the morning on Friday. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions continue today and tomorrow. Scattered showers and storms are possible today, with more widespread coverage expected on Friday as a front moves into the region. With increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50 percent. 20-foot winds from the southwest to west will average less than 10 mph through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 74 94 71 92 / 30 60 60 30 Anniston 75 92 74 91 / 30 60 60 40 Birmingham 76 95 74 93 / 30 60 60 30 Tuscaloosa 76 94 73 93 / 30 60 60 30 Calera 75 94 75 93 / 30 60 60 40 Auburn 74 93 75 91 / 30 60 60 70 Montgomery 76 94 75 93 / 30 60 60 70 Troy 74 94 73 92 / 30 50 50 70 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Cherokee- Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson- Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens- Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....32 AVIATION...05