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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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186 FXUS64 KBMX 171755 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1255 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 As expected, earlier initiation of scattered to numerous showers and storms has begun. An upper-level low positioned over eastern Texas is dampening the ridge and resulting in some weak low-level troughing over the Lower MS River Valley. West to southwesterly flow is providing ample moisture across the Deep South which is providing the means for higher than normal PoPs. A cold front will also move southeast into the area overnight and through tomorrow associated with a low pressure system over eastern Quebec. The front will provide additional lift for widespread showers and storms tomorrow. DCAPE is hovering around 800-1000 J/kg, but could be as high as 1100 J/kg in some areas, so storms will likely be gusty and could produce some isolated tree damage. Heavy downpours are also expected and rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches could fall in a short period of time. The enhanced coverage of rainfall should help to bring heat indices down despite dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Will continue the Heat Advisory in the west for now, but may be able to cancel it early as storms continue to expand this afternoon. Shouldn`t need a Heat Advisory tomorrow with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 * Wet, unsettled weather with periods of storms expected for the next several days. Daytime temperatures forecast to remain slightly below normal. Medium-range guidance and ensembles are pretty consistent with an upper-level pattern favoring daily convective rain chances through the next several days. This will feature, generally speaking, a ridge across the West, a trough across the central CONUS/Lower Mississippi Valley, and a blocking ridge across the far western Atlantic. This configuration will allow for the continued presence of southwesterly flow aloft, and southerly to southwesterly low-level flow off the Gulf. These low-level flow vectors promote moist, unstable air to remain situated across the Deep South for several days. Temperatures through the entire period should stay a few degrees below normal. For now, best PoPs are along/south of I-59 for Friday due to a preceding frontal passage allowing for drier air across the Tennessee Valley. This will persist somewhat into Saturday before the primary trough gradually shifts west on Sunday with additional disturbances aloft moving south across the Plains. Moisture should then be allowed to advect back to the north along with the meandering, somewhat diffuse surface front. Thus, Sunday through Wednesday feature 60-70% PoPs area-wide since progged synoptic features change very little due to blocking. Ongoing drought conditions are probably in position to improve, which is good news, though we`ll now need to watch for day-to-day localized flooding into early/mid next week depending upon mesoscale considerations. The synoptic signal is certainly there for a large footprint of rainfall across the entire Southeast. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024 Convection has already begun affecting TAF sites this afternoon. Expect a rather active afternoon with aviation impacts as storms continue to expand across the area. Activity will generally diminish after 02-03Z. Some low ceilings may develop across the west early tomorrow morning as a cold front moves into the area. For now, it looks like MVFR ceilings will reach TCL then ceilings rise through the morning with additional convective development possible from 16-18Z. Surface winds are from the south-southwest at 5 to 8 kts, but higher gusts could occasionally occur from outflow boundaries. Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... Increased rain chances continue through the week, as a front stalls across the region. Scattered to numerous convective coverage can be expected once again this afternoon, with even greater coverage Thursday and Friday. Minimum RH values will be above 50 percent each afternoon through the end of the week, with southwesterly 20 ft winds at 4-6 mph. We and unsettled weather is expected for the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 69 89 67 86 / 50 70 40 60 Anniston 72 88 69 86 / 30 70 50 70 Birmingham 72 89 70 86 / 50 70 50 60 Tuscaloosa 73 90 70 86 / 40 80 60 60 Calera 73 89 71 86 / 40 80 60 70 Auburn 73 90 71 86 / 40 80 60 80 Montgomery 73 93 72 87 / 40 80 70 80 Troy 72 93 70 87 / 40 80 70 80 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Marengo-Pickens-Sumter- Tuscaloosa. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....40 AVIATION...86/Martin