Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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559 FXUS64 KBMX 051147 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 647 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Upper level ridging is pushed southward today, becoming oriented west to east along the Gulf Coast, as a trough moves southeastward through the Mid Mississippi River Valley. A surface front and convective complex associated with the trough is moving through Arkansas this morning. Locally, a few patchy clouds show up on satellite, but otherwise, conditions are quiet and muggy. The front and line of storms will continue to move east southeast this morning into the Tennessee Valley. Moisture pooling is expected ahead of the front, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Before rain arrives/convection develops, expect heat indices to warm into the 103-107F range across the northwest. The Heat Advisory has been expanded to include the five northwestern counties in Central Alabama. The line of storms will move into northwest Alabama around mid morning, and likely be slightly weaker/more broken than it currently is. However, the combination of the boundary, with daytime heating and falling upper level heights, expect redevelopment to occur with numerous to widespread shower and storm coverage through the afternoon. Storms will produce heavy rainfall as PWs are around 2.5inches, but severe storms are unlikely. The front will slow/stall across the area, leaving a boundary for isolated to scattered convection overnight and into Saturday morning. Expect rain coverage to increase by Saturday afternoon along and south of the front, roughly south of the I-20 corridor. Drier air works into northern portions of the area, behind the front, and will likely need a Heat Advisory for only the southeastern counties. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Guidance progresses a front southward across the Deep South Saturday night, suppressing an area of tropical air characterized by PWs 2.0- 2.4", to areas south of I-20. Meanwhile, TC Beryl is forecast to emerge into the southwestern Gulf while an upper-level low swings west toward the Carolina Coast - both combating/weakening the ridge. Drier air situated to the north will coincide with surface dewpoints in the mid to uppers 60s. This effectively shifts greatest heat index values (near advisory criteria) along and south of I-85 for Sunday afternoon, and this moisture will also continue to foster diurnal showers and thunderstorms with best coverage south of I-20. The weakened presence of ridging appears to flip back early next week with medium-range guidance suggesting low- to mid-level height rises (between TC Beryl and the upper low). Tropospheric moisture begins to spread northward toward the Tennessee Valley once again. The increase in moisture/instability led to a more uniform 50-60% PoP for Monday and Tuesday afternoons despite forcing details becoming less clear. PoPs are on the decrease thereafter as the forecast becomes a little more contingent upon where Beryl decides to go. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Localized LIFR/IFR clouds and fog are impacting several terminals this morning, as low level moisture and lift increase ahead of an approaching front. Clouds and fog will improve to VFR over the next hours. Showers and storms will approach from the northwest, with activity nearing TCL and BHM by 15Z. Expect widespread rain coverage through the rest of the day, with impacts at all terminals. Cigs could fall to MVFR with convection, but generally cigs will be in the 5-6kft range. Storms could produce heavy rainfall, reducing vis at times. Outside of a localized strong wind gust associated with a storm, winds will be at or less than 6kts. The front will slow and stall across the area, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible through the end of the period. Expect MVFR cigs late in the forecast period. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and humid conditions will continue through the day on Sunday. Widespread rain and storms are expected today as a front moves into the region, and stalls over the area through Saturday. With increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50 percent today, and above 40 percent Saturday and Sunday. 20-foot winds from the southwest to west today will become northerly Saturday, but will average less than 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 93 71 92 68 / 80 60 40 10 Anniston 91 74 91 71 / 80 60 50 20 Birmingham 94 74 92 72 / 80 60 40 10 Tuscaloosa 94 74 92 72 / 70 60 40 10 Calera 93 75 92 73 / 80 60 50 10 Auburn 92 75 92 75 / 70 60 80 30 Montgomery 93 74 94 73 / 70 60 80 30 Troy 95 74 93 73 / 70 60 80 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton- Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee- Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike- Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa- Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....40 AVIATION...14