237
FXUS64 KBMX 180116
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
816 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 703 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024

Radar rainfall estimates indicate a large part of Central Alabama
received rainfall again today. Several boundaries were present
over the area that aided the thunderstorm initiation. Due to these
numerous boundaries, the surface has become stable and much of the
activity has trended downward. There are a few more boundaries
that are present across the northern part of Alabama that are
ahead of a surface cold front. These boundaries may provide
enough lift for additional showers and thunderstorms overnight.
Overall, little changes to the ongoing forecast. The best rain
chances will be in the northwest. An upper level short wave
rotates around the longwave trough and over Central Alabama on
Thursday. This will also be in the vicinity of the surface front
and numerous other smaller scale boundaries. With moisture values
remaining high, instability high, and lift good, numerous showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated and initiating by midday.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024

As expected, earlier initiation of scattered to numerous showers and
storms has begun. An upper-level low positioned over eastern Texas
is dampening the ridge and resulting in some weak low-level
troughing over the Lower MS River Valley. West to southwesterly flow
is providing ample moisture across the Deep South which is providing
the means for higher than normal PoPs. A cold front will also move
southeast into the area overnight and through tomorrow associated
with a low pressure system over eastern Quebec. The front will
provide additional lift for widespread showers and storms tomorrow.
DCAPE is hovering around 800-1000 J/kg, but could be as high as 1100
J/kg in some areas, so storms will likely be gusty and could produce
some isolated tree damage. Heavy downpours are also expected and
rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches could fall in a short period of time.
The enhanced coverage of rainfall should help to bring heat indices
down despite dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Will continue the
Heat Advisory in the west for now, but may be able to cancel it
early as storms continue to expand this afternoon. Shouldn`t need a
Heat Advisory tomorrow with highs generally in the upper 80s to
lower 90s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024

Guidance indicates a pattern over the coming days that will
support PWAT values near 2.00" (the Wednesday 12z BMX sounding
showed a PWAT of 1.92"). This, combined with ripples within a
trough axis extending across the region and a nearby front, will
promote spells of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
seemingly be maximized during the influence of daytime heating.
Minor flooding could occur, in isolated instances, for locations
that are dealt repeated rounds of downpours or a slow-moving cell.
Increased cloud cover and convective activity should hold daily
high temperatures in the 80s on average across central Alabama,
with low temperatures near 70.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 PM CDT WED JUL 17 2024

Convection was diminishing at this writing. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible over Central Alabama overnight, but
these appear to be away from most of the terminals. The lower
levels of the atmosphere have a slight increase in moisture and
the sounding look closer to saturation than previous nights. Will
add some mention of MVFR ceilings around sunrise to all terminals
and will monitor for potential brief IFR ceilings in the worst
case scenario. Winds overnight will be light. On Thursday, a front
approaches from the northwest. Ceilings will eventually develop
along with convection. Rain chances are high and will likely be
mentioned as a minimum tempo group in future issuances. Winds
around 6kts with a westerly component.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Each day will offer an opportunity for showers and thunderstorms
across central Alabama. Fire weather elements are not expected to
be approached or exceeded over the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  89  67  83 /  40  70  40  60
Anniston    72  88  69  83 /  40  70  50  70
Birmingham  72  89  70  83 /  40  70  50  70
Tuscaloosa  73  90  70  83 /  40  80  60  70
Calera      73  89  71  83 /  40  80  60  80
Auburn      73  90  71  84 /  40  80  60  80
Montgomery  73  93  72  86 /  40  80  70  90
Troy        72  93  70  87 /  40  80  70  90

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....89^GSatterwhite
AVIATION...75