Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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781 FXUS63 KBIS 140839 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible once again late this afternoon and into the evening. - Hail to the size of tennis balls and damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main hazards. There is also a conditional threat for a tornado or two. - After another very warm day today with highs mainly in the mid 80s to mid 90s, we cool down through midweek before another warmup to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Early this morning, western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of subtle northwest flow aloft. Several waves moving through the apex of a western US ridge have flattened the flow to nearly zonal. The most recent of these waves continues to move off to the east southeast across South Dakota, along with an impressive complex of severe storms that will continue to move away from our area through the morning. The next wave will move into our area later this morning and into the early afternoon and is currently located over southern Saskatchewan. This wave will lead to the development of some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two across the northwest and north central. We do not expect severe weather with these initial showers and storms early in the day. The next stronger wave will then approach late in the afternoon or in the evening. There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of this wave. One scenario would bring the wave in earlier which would potentially lead to a greater severe weather threat. The other scenario brings the wave into the area later in the evening, which would perhaps limit the severe weather potential. The latest HRRR runs have started to back off significantly with an earlier convective initiation solution and convection coverage in general, so it may be starting to pick up on the delayed wave arrival. These trends will be important to watch through the day. A broad and weak surface low will develop in the afternoon around the North Dakota/South Dakota/Montana tri-border area. A warm front will extend to the east of this low and a surface trough to the south. These features will be favored areas for convective initiation once the mid level wave does start approach. If storms can get going, let`s talk worst case scenario. The environment will be characterized by MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 range and strong deep layer shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. Storm mode becomes a bit complicated as the deep layer shear vector will be fairly parallel with the warm front but there will be a clear perpendicular component to the surface trough. Thus, depending on storm coverage we could end up with a mixed mode: some bowing/line segments and some embedded supercell structures. If we can get a discrete supercell or two, there could also be a conditional tornado threat along one of the boundaries around and after 00z given increasing storm relative helicity. That being said, the main threats would be hail to the size of tennis balls and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. Best case scenario is that the wave comes in later in the evening and elevated convection develops mainly across the north. Storms also may approach from northeast Montana and/or Saskatchewan in the overnight hours. These storms would still have a risk for some severe hail and damaging winds but the coverage and magnitude of threats would likely be less. It will be interesting to see how all of the CAMs progress over the next 12 hours. Either way, showers and storms will likely linger across portions of the Devil`s Lake Basin and/or James River Valley through Monday morning. We will then pretty much dry out for the rest of the work week. The one exception may be on Tuesday, when another weak wave will bring a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm to the south and portions of the central. Regarding temperatures, we will have one more very warm day today with highs ranging from the lower 80s in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains to the mid and upper 90s southwest. Monday will then be much cooler in the wake of the aforementioned surface low, with highs ranging from the lower 70s northeast to the mid 80s southwest. Highs will remain similar through Wednesday, but the western ridge will start to nudge in again towards the end of the week and into the weekend, promoting the next warmup and the potential return of some 90s to the forecast. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected through the period at all sites. However, more showers and storms will develop Sunday afternoon, potentially lasting into the late evening. Storms will be isolated to scattered with exact locations and tracks uncertain. A few storms could become severe. Large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging winds to 70 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. If a stronger storm does move overhead any particular site, brief MVFR to IFR visibilities will be possible. Winds may become gusty and erratic in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ZH AVIATION...ZH