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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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086 FXUS63 KBIS 061911 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent) will continue through the day across much of western and central North Dakota. This activity will be hit or miss. - Another round of scattered showers and storms (30 to 60 percent) is expected on Sunday, with the best chances east. Some lingering showers and storms will remain possible across the east Monday and Tuesday afternoon. - A gradual warming and drying trend is still expected for next week, with temperatures above normal by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Western and central North Dakota sits under the base of an upper level trough with an upper low located near the South Dakota border. Most of the showers and storms are currently located under and around the center of the low over the south central and into the James River Valley. That being said, storm coverage and chances (30 to 60 percent) should increase across all of western and central North Dakota over the next few hours as diurnal heating really ramps up. In fact, we are already starting to see one other cluster of storms approaching the northwest out of northeast Montana. The environment today remains very similar to the environment the past couple of days with very little shear and MLCAPE ranging from 500 to 1500 J/kg. Also similar to previous days, we have strong low level instability and surface vorticity in place which could lead to some more weak funnels and/or landspouts given the very low shear. SPC mesoanalysis lends further confidence to this threat given non-supercell parameter values as high as 3. We have had one report of a funnel cloud near Carrington already this afternoon. Slow storm motions could also lead to locally heavy rainfall and small hail. Showers and storms will start to diminish near and after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. Highs today will once again be in the 70s with lows tonight in the 50s. We will see one more day of this pattern on Sunday with another round of hit or miss showers and storms developing in the afternoon. However, the chances (30 to 60 percent) will nudge a bit more to the east. The severe weather threat remains low but we may see one more day of weak funnel potential. However, surface vorticity may not be quite as high with the upper low kicking out into Minnesota. Highs on Sunday will be very similar to today but maybe just a touch warmer with some lower 80s possible north central and east. An expansive western US ridge will start to finally nudge into the region to start the week. However, our eastern areas (Devil`s Lake Basin and James River Valley) have the potential to see some lingering showers and storms in the afternoon Monday and potentially Tuesday. For the most part, we will see a drying and warming trend through the week as the ridge moves in and deamplifies. On Monday, forecast highs will range from the mid 70s to mid 80s and then by Wednesday we should see highs in the 80s across all of western and central North Dakota. By Thursday and Friday, we will see widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For the most part we should see VFR conditions across western and central North Dakota through the period. However, we will see more scattered showers and thunderstorms again through the day, diminishing in the evening. The best chances will generally be north and east, including sites KXWA, KMOT, and KJMS. Due to the hit or miss variety of these storms, will heavily lean on vicinity wording in the forecast for now. The one exception is at KJMS where ongoing showers and storms in and around the area may lead to brief MVFR conditions over the next hour or so. Further west and south (including KDIK and KBIS), shower and storm coverage is a bit more uncertain and will refrain to include precip in the forecast for these sites at this time. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ZH AVIATION...ZH