859
FXUS63 KBIS 111954
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
254 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and
  tonight, with some strong wind gusts and hail possible west.

- Severe weather threat continues Friday through Saturday night,
  greatest severe opportunity coming late Saturday/Saturday
  night.

- Very warm temperatures with increasing humidity to end the
  work week through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Current surface analysis places low over central Saskatchewan,
with trough dropping down through eastern Montana/Wyoming. Upper
level analysis places broad high over the Desert Southwest into
the Great Basin, with west to northwesterly flow over our area.
A variety of modest impulses continue to slide through the
flow, with one producing a few showers/thunderstorms over parts
of northwest North Dakota. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s
to lower 90s over our area.

For the rest of today into tonight, a few elevated
showers/storms will continue over the northwest through mid
afternoon, but expect a few additional storms will develop over
the west later this afternoon into this evening. These will be
the ones of greater concern as expect these to be higher based
storms in a rather well-mixed atmosphere with steep lapse rates.
Latest guidance continues to show D-CAPE values in excess of
1000 J/Kg, which all points to the possibility of strong wind
gusts. Coverage will be isolated, but any storm later this
afternoon/evening will need to be monitored. Modest shower/storm
chances spread east as the night goes on, but wind threat will
diminish.

Friday looks to be our warmest day as temperatures push into the
90s over most locations, possibly touching 100 in the far
southwest. Low level moisture will be on the increase over most
locations resulting in a sticky/hot day with the exception of
the far southwest which will be on the back-side of the trough
allowing drier air to work in. Again, thunderstorm chances will
spread through the area albeit it modest (~20 percent most
locations, 30 percent north). With notably enhanced instability
over a broad portion of the area given the moisture in place,
the threat for severe weather becomes a concern over much of the
area.

Severe concerns continue on Saturday, which may actually be the
day of greatest concern with respect to severe potential.
Strong instability again expected by late afternoon, which will
also be in combination with elevated deep layer shear values.
The question is the timing of initiation, which at this time
looks to be more aimed towards the evening/overnight hours.

Unsettled pattern continues into the upcoming week with a near
daily chance of showers/storms. With that said, a strong upper
low dropping through central Canada towards James Bay will sweep
cooler air into our area for the first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will be a concern over western North
Dakota this afternoon, spreading into central North Dakota this
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS