643
FXUS63 KBIS 051954
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
254 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent) will
  continue this afternoon across western and central North
  Dakota. This activity will be of the "hit or miss" variety,
  with localized areas possibly seeing heavy rainfall again.

- Daily chances (30 to 60 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms continue through the weekend

- A gradual warming and drying trend is expected for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The weather pattern today looks quite similar to yesterday. Weak
progressive ridging is currently located over western and
central North Dakota and this feature has been the main reason
showers and storms have been a little slower to get going than
yesterday. That being said, another fast moving upper low will
track into the area later today and tonight, bringing more
scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms (30 to
60 percent chance). The severe weather potential remains low.
While MLCAPE will max out around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, shear will
be very low. Still, given slow storm motions, locally heavy
rainfall will be possible along with some small hail and
frequent lightning. Given the lack of shear, weak
funnels/landspouts could be a concern similar to yesterday, but
the upper low has moved well east so background vorticity is
not as elevated. Thus, we do not think the threat is as high
but SPC mesoanalysis does suggest some pockets of the non-
supercell tornado parameter up to one, likely driven by the weak
shear and strong low level CAPE. Highs this afternoon will be
in the 70s.

The story remains pretty much the same for Saturday and Sunday
with more chances of showers and thunderstorms (30 to 70
percent) with the best chances currently looking like Saturday
afternoon. Severe weather chances remain low given a similar
environment as today. Highs will mainly be in the 70s again on
Saturday and Sunday but we may start to see some lower 80s by
Sunday.

We dry out on Monday as an expansive western ridge finally
starts to nudge into the region. There could be a window for a
few showers or storms across the north central and northeast on
Tuesday as a weak wave rides down the ridge but we are talking
maybe a couple hundredths of liquid at the most. Expect a
gradual warming trend through the week with some upper 80s back
in the forecast by Wednesday and some lower 90s by the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected at all sites through the
period. However, we will see some isolated to scattered showers
and storms develop later this afternoon and into the evening.
These will be very hit and miss so we only included vicinity
mention for KXWA, KDIK, and KBIS for now. There is less
confidence in precip coverage farther east and north. If a
stronger storm can move directly overhead, there may be brief
MVFR visibilities and gusty/erratic winds. Finally, ceilings
over KMOT currently are right on the border of VFR/MVFR
categories but these cloud bases should lift over the next hour
or two with more daytime heating.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ZH