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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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638 FXUS63 KBIS 171330 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 830 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average high temperatures in the 70s are expected across all but the southwest today. Highs in the southwest are expected to reach the low to mid 80s. - High temperatures warm into the 80s across western and central North Dakota Thursday and through the weekend. This is near to slightly above average for mid to late July. A few readings in the low 90s are possible in the southwest Thursday. - Dry weather is expected through Thursday, then a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 830 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The aforementioned fog has begun to lift across the impacted areas, with only a handful of minor reductions in visibility to be found on webcams and observed by a few low-lying AWOS sites. The forecast remains on track at this time, with Canadian high pressure steadily making its way south into our area. Winds remain light while the sky is mostly clear, though some scattered mid level clouds linger over portions of the south central and the southern James River Valley. UPDATE Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Patchy fog continues mainly in the northwest. Despite large reductions in visibility on some AWOS sites, webcams and satellite observations continue to suggest most fog is very localized and mainly affecting low lying areas. Any fog is still expected to rapidly dissipate this morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Based on a few observations and hints of it on satellite, added patchy fog for a part of the northwest through the early morning hours. Overall, suspect most of this fog is very shallow in nature with very limited coverage. Any fog should rapidly dissipate after the sun rises. Not a lot has changed overall. A west CONUS ridge will continue to ever so gradually slide eastward today and amplify a bit more. This will keep the area in northwest flow aloft with the southwest experiencing WAA. Enough of this warmer air is expected to mix to the surface to bring the return of near-average temperatures (low to mid 80s) this afternoon in the southwest, while the rest of the area remains below average in the 70s. Conditions will remain mostly dry today. However, a few popcorn showers are once again not totally out of the question this afternoon, though confidence of occurrence is very low. By Thursday, summer will return to the area sans vengeance as the ridge establishes more influence over the state. This will result in near-average highs in the low to mid 80s for all but the southwest, where above average highs are progged to reach the low 90s. For Friday through the weekend and into early next week, near-average highs in the 80s are expected to prevail most everywhere most days. Low NBM 25th/75th percentile spreads suggest confidence is rather high in this solution. Embedded weak shortwave energy within northwesterly flow aloft may bring the return of precipitation Friday through Saturday. Nothing looks real organized at this time and current chances range from around 20 to 40 percent Friday afternoon/evening and around 20 to 30 percent Saturday afternoon/evening. With a lack of decent shear, and as supported by CSU Machine Learning, severe weather chances seem very low at this time. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 830 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Patchy fog has developed mainly in the northwest. While various ASOS/AWOS sites are showing large reductions in visibility, webcams and satellite observations suggest fog is mostly very localized and mainly in low-lying areas. Any fog will rapidly dissipate this morning, and once that occurs, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected to prevail through the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/Telken DISCUSSION...Telken AVIATION...Telken