184
FXUS63 KBIS 191451
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
951 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected today through
  this evening. An isolated strong storm is possible.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible through the
  weekend and into Monday. Probability for severe weather is
  low.

- Seasonable temperatures continue through the weekend, with
  highs in the 80s and lows near 60.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Thunderstorms have have diminished over the past couple of hours
with only a few lingering showers across mainly the south. We do
expect some more diurnal thunderstorm development later this
afternoon and a few could become strong, but weak shear will
likely keep any storms from reaching severe levels. Still, some
small hail and gusty winds to 55 mph will be possible under the
strongest cores. No major changes were needed for this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Minimal updates needed this morning. Thunderstorms continue to
develop across the southern half of ND. There remains enough
instability that a few of these storms could become strong at
times, although the lack of shear should limit the overall severe
weather threat this morning. Small hail and gusty winds still
remain possible within the stronger storms this morning.
Meanwhile, clear areas in the north are reporting some patchy
fog, which is also showing up on the nighttime RGB satellite
product. Added in patchy fog mention in for the next few hours
across these northern areas. With more widespread clearing and
light winds expected tonight, added in patchy fog for tonight
into Saturday morning as well for northern, central, and eastern
areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 415 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Surface low will move out of the Northern Rockies today, while
an upper level wave also moves across the region. This combined
with modest instability and shear will bring chances for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the day and evening.
This morning has already seen convection with the passing of the
upper wave, and will continue to do so. There may be a brief
break in thunderstorms early this afternoon before instability
recovers and the surface low develops more thunderstorms. Shear
today is overall moderate and around 30 knots. MUCAPE today is
increased at times and generally around 2000 J/KG. These modest
parameters could bring about an isolated strong to perhaps
severe thunderstorm. SPC has kept the Marginal Risk south of us
for today, with the CSU-MLP severe outlook showing a hail risk
in some far southern portions of ND. That being said, a pulse
like thunderstorm could bring hail up to the size of quarters
and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Storm motion today looks to be
slow, and pwats look to be forecast towards the 90th percentile.
This could bring about some heavy rain at times. Otherwise look
for high temperatures to remain in the 80s today, with
continued light winds. Tonight, thunderstorm activity is
expected to diminish shortly after sunset. Winds will once again
be light and lows will be near 60 degrees. Light winds and
increased RH could lead to some patchy fog tonight, although
confidence was not high enough to include at this time.

For the rest of the weekend, we look to remain in this warm yet
unstable pattern. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will again
be possible Saturday afternoon and evening, although the lack of
shear will limit any severe weather potential. A similar story
is expected for Sunday, although coverage may be slightly less
than Saturday. Temperatures through the weekend will remain in
the 80s for highs and near 60 for lows. Winds will be light and
generally northeast during the day. With a building ridge to our
west bringing northerly flow aloft, some wildfire smoke could
return the area this weekend. Something to monitor, yet not
enough confidence to place in the forecast at this time.

The broad upper level ridge could slowly nudge eastward next
week as indicated by the clusters. Chances for thunderstorms may
linger to start the week, although could diminish if this ridge
moves more overhead. Temperature trends may also be more on the
warming side depending are far east this ridge moves. Current
NBM forecast returns 90s for high temps mid to late week. There
is some spread in the NBM forecast though for this time period,
although with clusters indicating this ridge coming overhead,
confidence towards the warmer solution of these spreads is
increased. Later next week this ridge may push east of the
region, which could return chances for showers and
thunderstorms. This is again dependent on the placement of the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be found today through
this evening. Placed VCTS in sites with better chances for
storms through this morning. Confidence was not high enough to
place in thunderstorm mention for this afternoon and evening,
although most sites have a 20 to 40% chance of thunderstorms
during this time period. Thunderstorms could bring some brief
MVFR as well, along with gusty winds and perhaps some small hail.
Otherwise look for generally VFR conditions and light winds
through the forecast period. Thunderstorm chances diminish
tonight, although some patchy fog is possible into Saturday
morning. Confidence was not high enough to include fog mention
in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin