783
FXUS63 KBIS 071109
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
609 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60 percent) are
  again expected today, with the best chances east.

- Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain possible
  across the east Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

- A gradual warming and drying trend is still expected for next
  week, with temperatures above normal by the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Two distinct circulation centers are evident via satellite
within the large scale trough over the region. Departing S/WV
centered over northern Minnesota and another embedded wave over
portions of southwest ND/northwest SD. In addition, there is
another more subtle impulse dropping south across western North
Dakota, resulting in elevated cloud cover there along with an
area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms advancing
south with the impulse. Also scattered showers continue over my
southeast, more associated with the S/WV to our east. For this
update, modified POPs and sky cover based on latest imagery and
trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Currently, quasi-stationary long wave trough remains over the
region early this morning, with strong ridging over the west
coast. Within the trough, multiple embedded mid level impulses
continue to rotate through, contributing to scattered showers
and a few isolated thunderstorms. A more defined impulse
developing south across western ND results in a decent coverage
of showers and at times a few thunderstorms. This activity
should continue south across my west now through sunrise. Will
also maintain isolated mention elsewhere given the unsettled
atmosphere in place this morning.

For today, expect another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms, though we start to see the better coverage of
precipitation more to the east as our persistent trough starts
to develop farther to the east, anchored more over the Western
Great Lakes/eastern Dakotas vs. centered over the central
Dakotas. Mean flow aloft will be weak today across the east, so
as we saw yesterday, there is some potential for a few heavy
rainers with expected slow moving convection. In addition, the
non-supercell Tor parameter (NST) is also similar to Saturday
when we received multiple funnel cloud reports and one
confirmed landspout tornado, so wouldn`t be surprised to see
another day of this today during the daytime hours. Showers and
isolated storms will continue into this evening, before
diminishing later tonight as sfc high pressure builds into the
region and flow aloft becomes more north/northwesterly.

The aforementioned strong upper level ridge over the west coast
will develop farther inland into the Intermountain West Monday
into Tuesday, maintaining flow aloft over the Northern Plains
out of the north/northwest. NBM has maintained low POPs over my
far east both days, and can`t argue with this as any wave
within the flow could fire off diurnally driven convection. Most
of western and central North Dakota will remain dry however.

Temperatures are still favored to slowly warm through next
week, approaching seasonal normal values (low/mid 80s) by the
middle of the week. Upper ridge broadens and expands across the
Rockies later in the week, when temperatures are favored to be
well above normal, with highs Thursday-Saturday forecast in the
mid/upper 80s to mid 90s.

While we should be mainly dry after early next week, there is
increasing potential for thunderstorms next weekend when the
ridge flattens over the Northern Plains and when models depict
favorable upper level jet dynamics aloft as a S/WV trough
swings east across Canada. NBM put in slight chance POPs Fri-
Sun, along with the CSU machine learning indicating some low
severe probabilities during that timeframe. Thus, something to
keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over
western North Dakota early this morning, and will impact KDIK
now and for a few hours after sunrise. Low probability of
showers elsewhere south this morning. Showers and storms will
return again later this morning and through the day for most
locations, with the possible exception being far western North
Dakota. Overall, expect VFR flight conditions at all terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH