Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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283 FXUS63 KBIS 051427 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 927 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60%) are again expected today across western and central North Dakota. This activity will be of the "hit or miss" variety, with localized areas possibly seeing heavy rainfall again. - Daily chances (30 to 60%) for showers and thunderstorms continue through the weekend. - A gradual warming and drying trend is expected for next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 923 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 No major changes were needed for this update. Just blended in the latest observations to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The forecast for this morning remains on track. Updated POPs and sky cover based on latest imagery and trends. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Currently, S/WV trough/mid level low continues to slowly push off to the east, now over the Western Great Lakes region. Weak north/northwest flow aloft over the Northern Plains, ahead of a S/WV mid level ridge to our northwest. Within the flow, a subtle mid level impulse is moving south/southeast across my eastern counties, contributing to maintaining elevated cloud cover and resulting in some radar returns. Elsewhere, mostly clear conditions along and west of Highway 83, with some low clouds trying to develop into the Turtle Mountain region. For today, active flow aloft continues, with the weak S/WV ridge moving southeast across the region, followed by a well defined S/WV impulse developing into eastern Montana during the day. Decent instability will be present today though with more subtle forcing compared to yesterday, but again expect to see scattered shower and thunderstorm development as we warm. Shear remain minimal so the threat for severe is very low if anything. With similar PWATs and weak flow aloft, will have to monitor for heavy rainfall potential again with slow moving convection and possible training of storms. Showers and isolated storms will continue into tonight as the aforementioned wave develops slowly southeast into the Dakotas. The remainder of the weekend will be similar to today, with multiple embedded waves moving across the region within a broader quasi-stationary trough aloft. Strong upper level ridging over the western CONUS will slowly nudge eastward through next week, but may be delayed a bit compared to earlier NBM and ensemble blends. We remain in a north/northwest flow pattern both Monday and Tuesday, and any wave within the flow aloft could fire off diurnally driven convection either day. NBM came in dry, and will not deviate from this, just wanted to mention this possibility as we won`t start to lose our moisture until the ridge gets closer. Temperatures are still favored to slowly warm through next week, finally approaching seasonal normal values (low/mid 80s) by the middle of the week. Once the ridge moves into the Rockies mid to late next week, temperatures are favored to be above normal and the weather will be mainly dry. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 614 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Ceilings are VFR at all terminals early this morning. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return after 15-17Z this morning, and will continue through much of the 12Z period. I opted to stay with VCSH at this time due to the low predictability at any given location of the expected scattered showers/thunderstorms. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...NH AVIATION...NH