Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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961 FXUS61 KBGM 141617 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1217 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry conditions will continue today, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon. Temperatures will become increasingly warmer and more humid through Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions for the middle and end of the week. There will also be a greater chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially each afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 1230 PM Update... Showers have moved east and skies have cleared over Luzerne county. Temperatures are beginning to climb over the region with observations in the low to mid 80s at this time. Made slight adjustments to blend in the recent obs with the previous forecast. Otherwise no other changes were needed this update. 930 AM Update... Rain shower is moving through Luzerne county this morning. Used radar imagery to manually add this to the forecast as none of the CAMs capture this. Otherwise fog has burned off and clear skies occupy most of the region with only luzerne county experiencing clouds. Made minor changes to update temperatures and dew points blending in the latest observations. 655 AM Update... Flow will shift to more southwesterly today, which will advect in a warmer airmass. Skies will generally be mostly sunny with some scattered cumulus around. Cannot rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly across Northeast PA, but the large majority of the area will remain dry all day. Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90. Dew points will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, it will not be as humid as Monday and Tuesday will be. Tonight, a shortwave will move through the area, which will result in scattered showers, especially across Central NY. Enough elevated instability may be in place for a few isolated thunderstorms as well. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be present with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Heat and humidity builds on Monday, although this comes with quite a bit of uncertainty. A shortwave riding along quasi-zonal flow will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop. This will have the potential to limit daytime heating and keep temperatures several degrees cooler than it would be otherwise. Right now, forecasting highs to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. With dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower 70s, it will also be rather humid. A few locations in the valleys and urban areas will have the potential to have heat indices approach the mid 90s. That being said, after coordinating with our surrounding offices, opted to not issue any Heat Advisories at this time, largely due to the strong possibility that most areas do not reach criteria on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 423 AM update... Zonal flow aloft will continue through Tuesday before the pattern finally begins amplifying in response to a trough digging in north of Lake Superior Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday evening, mainly over eastern and southern portions of the CWA, before shifting out of the area before midnight. A stray shower could graze areas north of the Thruway before dawn Tuesday. Increasing W to WSW flow on Tuesday will result in another day of hot and humid conditions, possibly pushing Heat Advisory criteria in some lower-elevation areas in south-central NY. Much will depend on timing of showers and thunderstorms, which are expected to develop again, especially during the afternoon. The increasing flow aloft will bring the potential for severe thunderstorms. The upper trough over the Great Lakes will swing well to our north on Wednesday, but will drag a shortwave trough through the area, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the region through the day, but also cooling temperatures into the 80s for most areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 423 AM update... High pressure will build into the area on Thursday, with fair weather and more comfortable temperatures and humidity expected, as highs look to drop into the middle to upper-70s. The spell of fair weather looks to persist into the weekend as upper level ridging builds in along the east coast. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Valley fog/mist at KELM will dissipate by 13Z, with VFR conditions expected after that. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at least through the next 24 hours (at least through 12Z Monday). There is a chance for a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm at any Central NY terminal tonight, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Outlook... Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon; otherwise mainly VFR. Thursday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG/ES SHORT TERM...MPH LONG TERM...MPH AVIATION...BJG