770
FXUS61 KBGM 141823
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
223 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will continue today, although an isolated
shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon.
Temperatures will become increasingly warmer and more humid
through Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions for the middle
and end of the week. There will also be a greater chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1230 PM Update...

Showers have moved east and skies have cleared over Luzerne
county. Temperatures are beginning to climb over the region
with observations in the low to mid 80s at this time. Made
slight adjustments to blend in the recent obs with the previous
forecast. Otherwise no other changes were needed this update.

930 AM Update...

Rain shower is moving through Luzerne county this morning. Used
radar imagery to manually add this to the forecast as none of
the CAMs capture this. Otherwise fog has burned off and clear
skies occupy most of the region with only luzerne county
experiencing clouds. Made minor changes to update temperatures
and dew points blending in the latest observations.

655 AM Update...

Flow will shift to more southwesterly today, which will advect
in a warmer airmass. Skies will generally be mostly sunny with
some scattered cumulus around. Cannot rule out an isolated
afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly across Northeast PA,
but the large majority of the area will remain dry all day.
Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90. Dew points
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, it will not be as humid as
Monday and Tuesday will be.

Tonight, a shortwave will move through the area, which will
result in scattered showers, especially across Central NY.
Enough elevated instability may be in place for a few isolated
thunderstorms as well. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be
present with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Heat and humidity builds on Monday, although this comes with
quite a bit of uncertainty. A shortwave riding along quasi-zonal
flow will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop. This will have the potential to limit daytime heating
and keep temperatures several degrees cooler than it would be
otherwise. Right now, forecasting highs to be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. With dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower
70s, it will also be rather humid. A few locations in the
valleys and urban areas will have the potential to have heat
indices approach the mid 90s. That being said, after
coordinating with our surrounding offices, opted to not issue
any Heat Advisories at this time, largely due to the strong
possibility that most areas do not reach criteria on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

A mid-level shortwave will move through the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be dependent on how
quickly cloud cover and any precipitation moves into or develops
over the region. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate most
locations get into the low 90`s with enough humidity to get heat
index values into the 95-100 degree range for valley locations.
Given these values are already slightly above criteria, a heat
advisory has been issued for Tuesday.


Enough instability (1500 J/KG mixed CAPE for model average and
lift does look present for the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Some steepness of lapse rates in the low levels
looks present. Some mid- level dry air and about 30 knots of
0-6KM bulk shear to promote the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. These thunderstorms look to organize into clusters in
the late afternoon and evening hours as they move through.

A cold frontal boundary looks to then push through the region
Wednesday starting a cooling trend. This should knock highs down
several degrees. However, with the front nearby additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely to be tracking through the
region.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The front shifts south of the region Thursday with a slow
clearing to start but then high pressure firmly builds into the
region for Friday through the weekend. A much more pleasant
feel to the air with some 50`s for lows and highs close to 80
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through most of the period with a
chance for a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm at any
Central NY terminal tonight. Confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise precipitation and
thunderstorm chances increase at NY terminals towards the very
end of the period. A prob group was used at these sites to hint
at MVFR restrictions possible tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is
low in terms of the exact timing of these showers.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon;
otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG/ES