Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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206 FXUS61 KBGM 101344 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 944 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Beryl will impact the region today bringing potential flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. A few showers will linger into Thursday, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... ***Heightened risk for tornadoes and flash flooding today*** 943 AM update... Conditions continue to come together today for a potentially significant severe weather outbreak across a good portion of central NY and possibly into northeast PA. At this time visible satellite imagery is showing a thin layer of mid/high clouds moving to the east over central NY with an expanding pocket of clearing over western NY. This clear slot is expected to shift east which will help destabilize the area. However, this will likely also lead to some destructive cumulus clouds. Either way, the end result will likely be a well mixed, very unstable air mass south of the warm front...which is roughly along the I-90 corridor. There is still some uncertainty with respect to how much, if any, convection develops within the warm sector prior to the passage of the cold front later today. The two areas of concern are along or just south of the warm front, near the triple point, basically from the northern Finger Lakes east through the western Mohawk Valley, and secondly along an eastward progressing cold front that will sweep through central NY and northeast PA. There are no changes to the overall convective outlook and expected storm mode, with discrete storms/supercells initially along the warm front, and then some evolution into more linear-type storms later in the day as the cold front sweeps through. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the main threats. We are still also slightly concerned about the threat of heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding, especially over areas to the north where multiple waves of convection are possible. Previous discussion... Hot and humid airmass will be in place over the area today as a warm front pushes northward across the area this morning. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along the front as it pushes north. CAM trends are showing areas west of I-81 having the best chance to see rain showers with the warm frontal passage this morning. As the day progresses, the bulk of the forecast area will be well entrenched within the warm sector. Strong instability will build this afternoon with multiple models showing 2000-3000 j/kg of CAPE. The wind field also looks very primed for supercell development in the afternoon hours with 0-6km bulk shear values over 40kts that veer with height and nicely curved hodographs through the afternoon hours. This, combined with a very humid airmass that will keep LCL heights low, will allow for a good chance for some discrete supercells to develop that will be likely to produce a few tornadoes. SPC has increased our area to an enhanced risk with a 10% probability for tornadoes within 25 miles from a point across Central NY. As the afternoon progresses, the remnants of Beryl will move to the NE into Ontario. Several models are showing a second low forming along the south shore of Lake Ontario, moving to the NE during the late afternoon hours. This low is modeled to push a cold front through the area during the evening and into the overnight hours. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along this front as it taps into the tropical airmass over the region. Severe chances will remain into the early overnight hours as the front moves through. The tropical airmass we will see move into the area is very rare for our region. PWATs are expected to surge into the 2.0 - 2.5in. This is about 3 standard deviations higher than normal. A flood watch for flash flooding has been issued for our northern CWA from noon until midnight tonight. Finally, a heat advisory also is in effect for all of NEPA and Chemung, Tioga and Broome counties for tomorrow from 12pm to 8pm. The tropical airmass will push dewpoints into the low to mid 70s in the valleys and combined with temps in the upper 80s to low 90s, heat indices will climb into the mid 90s to low 100s. The front will push east of the CWA after 2am Thursday morning with some lingering showers remaining into the morning. Temps will be in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Thursday will be cooler with highs in the lower to mid 80s. There will also remain a chance for showers through the day with troughing overhead. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 325 AM Update: For most of the short term period, a stalled frontal boundary will be present along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastline. This will likely be too far to the east to see much in the way of showers or thunderstorms in our area, but a few isolated showers or thunderstorms will still be possible across the Poconos-Catskills. The best chance for this (albeit a low one) will be Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected for Friday, then mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will be near to slightly above normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Then above normal temperatures return on Saturday with weak ridging building in (highs mainly in the mid 80s to near 90). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 325 AM Update: Forecast uncertainty increases for the second half of the weekend into the beginning of next week with multiple shortwaves moving through the area, but with significant timing differences between the model guidance. At this time, no particular day appears to be a washout, with just some diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with continued above normal temperatures (highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s). && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Mostly VFR conditions expected across the region through at least this morning. A tropical, unstable airmass will be over the region today and ceilings are expected to fall later today to near MVFR. There is a good chance for thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon and through this evening, but confidence on exact timing of storms is still low. RME and SYR have a chance to see late morning TSRA, but not enough confidence to put into the forecast at this time. Conditions should be at there worse from around 21Z through 03Z and then expecting improvements through the overnight hours. Outlook... Thursday...Isolated showers possible, with associated restrictions. Friday through Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions with isolated showers possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072. NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ009-018-036-037. Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ024-055-056- 062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MPK