206
FXUS61 KBGM 101344
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
944 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Beryl will impact the region today bringing
potential flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. A few showers
will linger into Thursday, before high pressure builds back in
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
***Heightened risk for tornadoes and flash flooding today***

943 AM update...
Conditions continue to come together today for a potentially
significant severe weather outbreak across a good portion of
central NY and possibly into northeast PA. At this time visible
satellite imagery is showing a thin layer of mid/high clouds
moving to the east over central NY with an expanding pocket of
clearing over western NY. This clear slot is expected to shift
east which will help destabilize the area. However, this will
likely also lead to some destructive cumulus clouds. Either way,
the end result will likely be a well mixed, very unstable air
mass south of the warm front...which is roughly along the I-90
corridor. There is still some uncertainty with respect to how
much, if any, convection develops within the warm sector prior
to the passage of the cold front later today.

The two areas of concern are along or just south of the warm
front, near the triple point, basically from the northern Finger
Lakes east through the western Mohawk Valley, and secondly along
an eastward progressing cold front that will sweep through
central NY and northeast PA. There are no changes to the overall
convective outlook and expected storm mode, with discrete
storms/supercells initially along the warm front, and then some
evolution into more linear-type storms later in the day as the
cold front sweeps through. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the
main threats.

We are still also slightly concerned about the threat of heavy
rain leading to localized flash flooding, especially over areas
to the north where multiple waves of convection are possible.

Previous discussion...
Hot and humid airmass will be in place over the area today as a
warm front pushes northward across the area this morning. Rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along
the front as it pushes north. CAM trends are showing areas west
of I-81 having the best chance to see rain showers with the warm
frontal passage this morning.

As the day progresses, the bulk of the forecast area will be
well entrenched within the warm sector. Strong instability will
build this afternoon with multiple models showing 2000-3000
j/kg of CAPE. The wind field also looks very primed for
supercell development in the afternoon hours with 0-6km bulk
shear values over 40kts that veer with height and nicely curved
hodographs through the afternoon hours. This, combined with a
very humid airmass that will keep LCL heights low, will allow
for a good chance for some discrete supercells to develop that
will be likely to produce a few tornadoes. SPC has increased our
area to an enhanced risk with a 10% probability for tornadoes
within 25 miles from a point across Central NY.

As the afternoon progresses, the remnants of Beryl will move to
the NE into Ontario. Several models are showing a second low
forming along the south shore of Lake Ontario, moving to the NE
during the late afternoon hours. This low is modeled to push a
cold front through the area during the evening and into the
overnight hours. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this front as it taps into the tropical airmass over the region.
Severe chances will remain into the early overnight hours as
the front moves through.

The tropical airmass we will see move into the area is very rare
for our region. PWATs are expected to surge into the 2.0 - 2.5in.
This is about 3 standard deviations higher than normal. A flood
watch for flash flooding has been issued for our northern CWA
from noon until midnight tonight.

Finally, a heat advisory also is in effect for all of NEPA and
Chemung, Tioga and Broome counties for tomorrow from 12pm to
8pm. The tropical airmass will push dewpoints into the low to
mid 70s in the valleys and combined with temps in the upper 80s
to low 90s, heat indices will climb into the mid 90s to low
100s.

The front will push east of the CWA after 2am Thursday morning
with some lingering showers remaining into the morning. Temps
will be in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday will be cooler with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
There will also remain a chance for showers through the day
with troughing overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
325 AM Update:

For most of the short term period, a stalled frontal boundary
will be present along the Mid-Atlantic and New England
coastline. This will likely be too far to the east to see much
in the way of showers or thunderstorms in our area, but a few
isolated showers or thunderstorms will still be possible across
the Poconos-Catskills. The best chance for this (albeit a low
one) will be Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, partly to
mostly sunny skies are expected for Friday, then mostly sunny
skies on Saturday. Temperatures on Friday will be near to
slightly above normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Then
above normal temperatures return on Saturday with weak ridging
building in (highs mainly in the mid 80s to near 90).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
325 AM Update:

Forecast uncertainty increases for the second half of the
weekend into the beginning of next week with multiple shortwaves
moving through the area, but with significant timing differences
between the model guidance. At this time, no particular day
appears to be a washout, with just some diurnally-driven
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each
day. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies are expected with
continued above normal temperatures (highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s).

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected across the region through at
least this morning. A tropical, unstable airmass will be over
the region today and ceilings are expected to fall later today
to near MVFR.

There is a good chance for thunderstorms to develop later this
afternoon and through this evening, but confidence on exact
timing of storms is still low. RME and SYR have a chance to see
late morning TSRA, but not enough confidence to put into the
forecast at this time. Conditions should be at there worse from
around 21Z through 03Z and then expecting improvements through
the overnight hours.


Outlook...
Thursday...Isolated showers possible, with associated
restrictions.

Friday through Sunday...Mostly VFR conditions with isolated
showers possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch through this evening for NYZ009-018-036-037.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ024-055-056-
     062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK