589
FXUS61 KBGM 101749
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
149 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Beryl will impact the region today bringing
potential flash flooding and severe thunderstorms. A few showers
will linger into Thursday, before high pressure builds back in
for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

***Heightened risk for tornadoes and flash flooding continues***

150 PM update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the threat for
severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds and tornadoes this
afternoon and into the evening hours. We are also concerned for
the threat of heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding.
Heat and humidity also continue today across most of central NY
and northeast PA.

A very unstable air mass has developed across much of the
interior Northeast this afternoon ahead of an approaching low
pressure system that contains the remnants of Beryl. There is a
rich air mass associated with the system, which has combined
with a supplemental plume of deep moisture that is advecting
north into the region. We have already seen a couple of discrete
rotating thunderstorms move north within the warm sector and we
are currently watching a line of discrete storms in western NY
start to move into Steuben county and these storms will be the
focus of attention into the evening.

Very favorable deep and low level shear will create very
favorable conditions for rotating storms and the threat for
tornadoes. Deep convection will also lead to the threat of
strong damaging straight line winds as the storms grow upscale
into the evening.

The threat of heavy rain will be highest along and north of the
I-90 corridor where multiple rounds of heavy rain are possible
which could lead to several inches of rain in a short period of
time.

After the sun sets tonight, there will be a loss of instability
and the stronger dynamics will also shift off to the east. The
parent low pressure system will move out tonight and a slightly
cooler and much drier air mass will advect in behind the system
into Thursday. Highs on Thu will only climb into the upper 70s
and 80s with dew points in the 60s. A very comfortable day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1130 AM update...

A weak slow-moving surface boundary will be hung up along the
East Coast Fri and Sat and allow for a persistent threat of
showers and storms. The most favorable chance for precip will be
over the Catskills and Poconos. A ridge of high pressure will
set up farther to the west and keep areas west of I-81 mostly
dry and quiet. Temperatures will remain hot with highs in the
80s and lower 90s. Humidity will remain elevated but not
extreme...with dew points in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1130 AM update...

The weak ridge over the interior NE Saturday night will slowly
trend to the east through the rest of the weekend. This will
bring a brief period of dry/quiet weather to the region Sat
night and Sun. There could be a few popup thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening, but better chances for convection exist
Monday and Tuesday as the ridge breaks down and the synoptic
pattern becomes more cyclonic. Precipitation chances will be
elevated during the late afternoon/evening hours during peak
heating.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A tropical, unstable airmass will be over the region today and
ceilings are expected to fall later today to near MVFR.

Thunderstorms have begun to develop across Central NY, and will
continue to develop and possibly impact the majority of
terminals through this evening. Due to the expected scattered
nature of these storms, we included a tempo group for all
terminals for a few hours into the TAF period, until a more
organized line of storms is expected to form and more west to
east around 21-23Z. Storms are expected to taper down mainly
after 00Z, with a few straggling showers through 02-03Z, and
there`s a possibility of fog to develop early in the morning,
with categories dropping down to MVFR/fuel alt to possibly IFR
visibilities. The highest confidence for possible IFR
visibilities to occur will be in ITH and ELM, but other Central
NY counties have small possibilities, but left out of the TAF
for now due to low confidence.


Outlook...
Thursday...Isolated showers possible, with associated
restrictions.

Friday through Monday...Mostly VFR conditions with isolated
showers possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ038>040-043-
     044-047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-018-036-037.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044-045-055-056-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...KL/MPK