Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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585 FXUS61 KBGM 110513 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 113 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and lingering thunderstorms gradually exit the area toward after midnight, with quieter weather moving in overnight. A few showers will linger over portions of Central NY into Thursday, before high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1000 PM Update... Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move east-northeast through the eastern half of the forecast area this evening. The main threat is shifting more toward heavy rain and hydro/flash- flooding issues as torrential downpours occur. A few storms could still produce gusty winds and even have some rotation. The tornado watch is set to expire within the next hour. Thursday will be much cooler, partly to mostly cloudy with a breezy west-southwest winds 8-15 mph hour. Highs are only forecast to reach into the 70s for most of the area. 745 PM Update... Busy afternoon and early evening with numerous rotating super cells moving through the area. The severe and isolated tornado threat continues mainly east of I-81 in Central NY and all of NE PA...this is where a Tornado Watch remains in effect. Sig Tor parameter remains 1-2 for the areas noted above, with 0-1 SRH 150-200m2/s2, 0-1 km shear increasing to 20-25kt...overall supercell composite is an impressive 8-12 over the region owing to MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg and bulk effective shear 40-50kts. A line of thunderstorms will continue rolling east into the Catskills, Wyoming Valley and Poconos between now and 11pm or midnight....again the severe/tornado threat continues here. Flash flooding also remains possible along and east of I-81 as the slow moving line moves east with torrential downpours from the t`storms embedded....pwats are off the charts 2.2 to 2.3 inches with impressive southerly 850mb moisture transport. Rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are possible through midnight. 150 PM update... Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the threat for severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon and into the evening hours. We are also concerned for the threat of heavy rain leading to localized flash flooding. Heat and humidity also continue today across most of central NY and northeast PA. A very unstable air mass has developed across much of the interior Northeast this afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system that contains the remnants of Beryl. There is a rich air mass associated with the system, which has combined with a supplemental plume of deep moisture that is advecting north into the region. We have already seen a couple of discrete rotating thunderstorms move north within the warm sector and we are currently watching a line of discrete storms in western NY start to move into Steuben county and these storms will be the focus of attention into the evening. Very favorable deep and low level shear will create very favorable conditions for rotating storms and the threat for tornadoes. Deep convection will also lead to the threat of strong damaging straight line winds as the storms grow upscale into the evening. The threat of heavy rain will be highest along and north of the I-90 corridor where multiple rounds of heavy rain are possible which could lead to several inches of rain in a short period of time. After the sun sets tonight, there will be a loss of instability and the stronger dynamics will also shift off to the east. The parent low pressure system will move out tonight and a slightly cooler and much drier air mass will advect in behind the system into Thursday. Highs on Thu will only climb into the upper 70s and 80s with dew points in the 60s. A very comfortable day. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1130 AM update... A weak slow-moving surface boundary will be hung up along the East Coast Fri and Sat and allow for a persistent threat of showers and storms. The most favorable chance for precip will be over the Catskills and Poconos. A ridge of high pressure will set up farther to the west and keep areas west of I-81 mostly dry and quiet. Temperatures will remain hot with highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Humidity will remain elevated but not extreme...with dew points in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1130 AM update... The weak ridge over the interior NE Saturday night will slowly trend to the east through the rest of the weekend. This will bring a brief period of dry/quiet weather to the region Sat night and Sun. There could be a few popup thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening, but better chances for convection exist Monday and Tuesday as the ridge breaks down and the synoptic pattern becomes more cyclonic. Precipitation chances will be elevated during the late afternoon/evening hours during peak heating. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold front pushing through the area this morning, and with abundant low level moisture in place, IFR/MVFR ceiling restrictions are expected today everywhere except AVP. South-southwest winds tonight turn westerly Thursday afternoon between 5-15 kts. Outlook... Friday through Monday...Mostly VFR conditions with isolated showers possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT/MJM NEAR TERM...BJT/MJM SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MPK