611
FXUS61 KBGM 111306
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
906 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers linger over portions of Central NY today, before
high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
900 am update:
Updated to added a few more showers as per latest guidance and
radar trends this morning. Central NY/northeast PA is in the
wrap around moisture from the remnants of Beryl this morning.
However, this will be short-lived as the flow turns southwest
aloft ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Great
lakes. The flow will turn southwesterly. Visible satellite
imagery shows a lot of low level clouds which should persist
today but with insolation likely will evolve into a broken
cumulus deck. Adjusted cloud cover, temperatures and POPs. Added
some fog tonight as well.

Previous discussion:
After yesterday`s chaos, the weather will be much quieter
today. Cold front has pushed through the region and drier air is
advecting in from the west. However, weak troughing will remain
and a few showers will be possible, especially across the
northern forecast area. Highs today will also be much cooler,
only climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in
the 60s, a very comfortable day.

High pressure moves in overnight and will stay overhead on
Friday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
340 AM Update:

A slow moving/nearly stalled frontal boundary will be lingering
along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines which will
keep a chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms
around through Saturday for at least the Poconos-Catskills.
There is a bit uncertainty regarding how far west these
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be able to make it with
high pressure to the west, but latest trends in the model
guidance does bring the showers a bit farther to the west. All
of this being said, Friday night through Saturday does not
appear to be a washout with plenty of dry breaks as well.
Otherwise, it will remain warm with lows in the mid 60s to near
70 Friday night and highs in the mid 80s to near 90 on
Saturday.

Weak ridging will bring mainly dry conditions to the area
Saturday night though Sunday, although a few showers or
thunderstorms may sneak into the area (mainly west of I-81)
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Otherwise Sunday will feature mostly sunny skies and
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 AM Update:

The pattern becomes unsettled again for the beginning of next
week through the mid-week as the synoptic pattern becomes more
cyclonic. This will set the stage for daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon
during peak heating. Otherwise, during times without showers and
thunderstorms, it will be partly to mostly sunny. It will remain
warm with highs Monday and Tuesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s,
with slightly cooler temperatures by Wednesday (highs in the
lower 80s to near 90).

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture will be present across the region
today with associated MVFR conditions for ceilings. Tonight, low
stratus will lower and IFR conditions are expected through the
overnight hours everywhere except AVP.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...Mostly VFR conditions with isolated
showers possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPK