496
FXUS61 KBGM 112009
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
409 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers linger over portions of Central NY today, before
high pressure builds back in for the end of the week and
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
900 am update:
Updated to added a few more showers as per latest guidance and
radar trends this morning. Central NY/northeast PA is in the
wrap around moisture from the remnants of Beryl this morning.
However, this will be short-lived as the flow turns southwest
aloft ahead of an upper level trough moving into the Great
lakes. The flow will turn southwesterly. Visible satellite
imagery shows a lot of low level clouds which should persist
today but with insolation likely will evolve into a broken
cumulus deck. Adjusted cloud cover, temperatures and POPs. Added
some fog tonight as well.

Previous discussion:
After yesterday`s chaos, the weather will be much quieter
today. Cold front has pushed through the region and drier air is
advecting in from the west. However, weak troughing will remain
and a few showers will be possible, especially across the
northern forecast area. Highs today will also be much cooler,
only climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in
the 60s, a very comfortable day.

High pressure moves in overnight and will stay overhead on
Friday, with temperatures climbing back into the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
340 PM Update

No significant changes to this portion of the forecast with
today`s update. Previous discussion remains valid below:

A slow moving/nearly stalled frontal boundary will be
lingering along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines
which will keep a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms around through Saturday for at least the Poconos-
Catskills. There is a bit uncertainty regarding how far west
these scattered showers and thunderstorms will be able to make
it with high pressure to the west, but latest trends in the
model guidance does bring the showers a bit farther to the west
into Saturday morning. All of this being said, Saturday does
not appear to be a washout with plenty of dry breaks, especially
during the afternoon as a northwest flow of drier air takes
hold. Otherwise, it will remain warm with highs 85 to 90 over
the area.

Weak ridging will bring mainly dry conditions to the area
Saturday night though Sunday, although a few showers or
thunderstorms may sneak into the area (mainly west of I-81)
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Otherwise, after early morning fog Sunday will feature
mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM Update

The pattern becomes unsettled again for the beginning of next
week through the mid-week as the synoptic pattern becomes more
cyclonic. This will set the stage for daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon
during peak heating. Otherwise, during times without showers and
thunderstorms, it will be partly to mostly sunny. It will remain
very warm with highs Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid
80s to lower 90s, with much cooler and less humid air arriving
by Thursday. Thursday and Friday are looking mostly sunny and
dry with highs in the 70s to around 80. Overnight lows drop into
the mid-50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture across the region is responsible for
the current MVFR conditions for ceilings for the majority of
terminals. Tonight, low stratus will lower and IFR conditions
are expected through the overnight hours everywhere except AVP,
where confidence is too low for fog to occur.


Outlook...

Friday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR conditions with isolated
showers possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG/MJM
LONG TERM...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...KL