941
FXUS61 KBGM 120020
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
820 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will linger over Central NY through this evening.
Temperatures warm back up to the upper 80s and low 90s heading
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
415 PM Update...

Relatively quiet near term period through Friday night. Current
showers lingering over Central NY will taper off through this
evening, with weak high pressure building in to keep
precipitation chances low through Friday morning. Widespread fog
development overnight will likely occur overnight across Central
NY and NE PA. Heading into Friday, a weak and disorganized
coastal low on the East Coast will increase chances for
precipitation for NE PA, the Catskills, and some areas east of
I-81 and south of I-86 Friday mid-morning through the night.
Temperatures will begin to warm up again, with high temperatures
in the low to mid 80s Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
340 PM Update

No significant changes to this portion of the forecast with
today`s update. Previous discussion remains valid below:

A slow moving/nearly stalled frontal boundary will be
lingering along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines
which will keep a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms around through Saturday for at least the Poconos-
Catskills. There is a bit uncertainty regarding how far west
these scattered showers and thunderstorms will be able to make
it with high pressure to the west, but latest trends in the
model guidance does bring the showers a bit farther to the west
into Saturday morning. All of this being said, Saturday does
not appear to be a washout with plenty of dry breaks, especially
during the afternoon as a northwest flow of drier air takes
hold. Otherwise, it will remain warm with highs 85 to 90 over
the area.

Weak ridging will bring mainly dry conditions to the area
Saturday night though Sunday, although a few showers or
thunderstorms may sneak into the area (mainly west of I-81)
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night ahead of an approaching
shortwave. Otherwise, after early morning fog Sunday will feature
mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows are in the 60s both Saturday and Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 PM Update

The pattern becomes unsettled again for the beginning of next
week through the mid-week as the synoptic pattern becomes more
cyclonic. This will set the stage for daily chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly each afternoon
during peak heating. Otherwise, during times without showers and
thunderstorms, it will be partly to mostly sunny. It will remain
very warm with highs Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid
80s to lower 90s, with much cooler and less humid air arriving
by Thursday. Thursday and Friday are looking mostly sunny and
dry with highs in the 70s to around 80. Overnight lows drop into
the mid-50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A frontal boundary has pushed through Central NY, and is
starting to stall over NE PA. Behind this boundary a cooler,
moisture laden NW flow has taken hold. Rain and drizzle along
and immediately behind this front is bringing LIFR conditions
to BGM, with MVFR at ITH, SYR and RME. ELM managed to bounce
back to VFR as the low level moisture shifted east. The front
has not yet reached AVP, and therefore it is still VFR there.

Conditions and restrictions may fluctuate some through late
evening. Then, for the overnight low stratus and areas of fog
will take hold.... bringing widespread MVFR/MVFR Fuel Alt
conditions, with IFR also forecast at BGM, RME, ITH and perhaps
ELM. The upslope NW winds should allow for low CIG and/or fog to
develop rather quickly tonight at BGM and ITH, especially since
the ground is now wet due to recent rainfall. This is not
looking like a typical raditional cooling fog night, where ELM
has the highest fog probabilities. With that said, some
occasional fuel alt, and perhaps tempo IFR vsbys will still be
possible in and around ELM toward daybreak. AVP looks to only
see a small window MVFR mist toward daybreak.

The low stratus and areas of fog will lift, scatter and
dissipate by mid to late morning on Friday. Conditions are then
expected to return to VFR areawide for the afternoon and early
evening hours. Can`t rule out some developing rain showers near
AVP late in the day; mainly after 20z Friday.

Winds will be light and variable through the period, under 10 kts.

Outlook...

Friday night...MVFR or lower CIGs approaching AVP, ELM, BGM and
ITH heading into Saturday morning.

Saturday through Tuesday...Mostly VFR conditions with
isolated showers possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...BJG/MJM
LONG TERM...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...KL/MJM