662
FXUS61 KBGM 142245
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
645 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions continue through the evening, although an
isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible overnight. Heat and
humidity increase at the start of the work weak along with severe
potential. Cooler and quieter conditions follow for the second half
of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
630 PM Update...
Little change to the previous forecast. Chances of precipitation
were expanded in the Finger Lakes region over the next couple of
hours.

300 PM Update...

Warm and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon and
evening with mostly dry conditions expected. Gentle west to
southwest flow settles in with warm air advection allowing highs
to reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. With zonal flow
aloft and an incoming short wave, scattered showers are expected
over central NY tonight. Enough elevated instability may be in
place for a few isolated thunderstorms as well. Otherwise,
partly cloudy skies will be present with lows in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Quasi-zonal flow persists Monday with another shortwave passing
through the region. This leads to an increased potential for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Guidance shows inverted V
soundings with CAPE values ranging 1,500-2000J/Kg, combined with 25-
30 knots of shear. These conditions suggest strong to severe
storms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. SPC has our
region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging
winds being the main threat.

Temperatures on Monday are forecasted to reach the mid 80s to low
90s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat index values
are near advisory criteria with values ranging 95-100 degrees in NY
and 100-104 degrees in NEPA. A Heat Advisory has been issued for
most of CNY and all of NEPA for this update, but timing and location
of previously mentioned showers could limit daytime heating.
Otherwise showers are expected to continue through the evening hours
dissipating around midnight. Overnight temperatures are
forecasted to fall into the mid 60s to low 70s across the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level shortwave will move through the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be dependent on how
quickly cloud cover and any precipitation moves into or develops
over the region. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate most
locations get into the low 90`s with enough humidity to get heat
index values into the 95-100 degree range for valley locations.
Given these values are already slightly above criteria, a heat
advisory has been issued for Tuesday.


Enough instability (1500 J/KG mixed CAPE for model average and
lift does look present for the development of showers and
thunderstorms. Some steepness of lapse rates in the low levels
looks present. Some mid- level dry air and about 30 knots of
0-6KM bulk shear to promote the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. These thunderstorms look to organize into clusters in
the late afternoon and evening hours as they move through.

A cold frontal boundary looks to then push through the region
Wednesday starting a cooling trend. This should knock highs down
several degrees. However, with the front nearby additional
showers and thunderstorms are likely to be tracking through the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The front shifts south of the region Thursday with a slow
clearing to start but then high pressure firmly builds into the
region for Friday through the weekend. A much more pleasant
feel to the air with some 50`s for lows and highs close to 80
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through most of the period with a
chance for a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm at any
Central NY terminal tonight. Confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise precipitation and
thunderstorm chances increase at NY terminals towards the very
end of the period. A prob group was used at these sites to hint
at MVFR restrictions possible tomorrow afternoon. Confidence is
low in terms of the exact timing of these showers.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon;
otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015-
     016-018-022>025-036-037-055-056-062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...AJG/ES
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJG/ES