Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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886 FXUS61 KBGM 121921 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 321 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary located along the coast may bring some showers to parts of the area this afternoon through Saturday, mainly for the Poconos and Catskills. Elsewhere, conditions will be mainly dry through the weekend. Temperatures warm back up to the upper 80s to lower 90s heading into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Layers of low clouds and fog are being slow to burn off this morning but should do so over the next couple of hours. Still looking at additional clouds with showers and a few thunderstorms moving into the Wyoming valley and Poconos this afternoon. 650 AM Update: A stalled frontal boundary continues to be located along the coast today, but it will retrograde a bit westward by this afternoon. Moisture riding along this frontal boundary will surge northward and bring an increasing chance for showers and possibly some thunderstorms beginning this afternoon. How far west these showers make it remain a bit uncertain as high pressure located over Central and Western NY will try to keep mainly dry conditions in place for a large chunk of the area. However, for areas east of I-81/south of I-88, especially across the Poconos-Catskills, confidence is increasing in seeing showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms by the mid-late afternoon and persisting through tonight. With PWATs around or just under two inches, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. At this time, confidence in seeing any flooding is too low to hoist any Flood Watches, but a shorter-fused Flood Watch could be issued at a later time if confidence increases/if heavier rain moves farther west than currently expected. For areas west of these showers (in other words, most of the area), today will actually be mainly dry with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. With more cloud cover and some showers, the Poconos-Catskills will mainly have highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Tonight will be mainly dry for areas west of I-81, but as mentioned above, showers will continue east of I-81, especially across the Poconos-Catskills. Lows are expected to be in the 60s. More of the same is expected on Saturday, especially in the morning, with some lingering showers mainly for areas east of I-81, while areas west of I-81 remain mostly dry. Conditions begin to dry out area-wide during the afternoon as the frontal boundary moves eastward again and high pressure takes control. The warming trend will continue with forecast highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 319 AM update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the hot and dry conditions Sat night into Sun...hot and more humid conditions Monday with increasing chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Weak upper level ridge in place across the Northeast US Sat night and Sun morning will keep weather conditions quiet with generally clear skies which could lead to areas of fog across the region. Overnight lows in the 60s Sun morning will quickly warm into the 80s to around 90 in some spots Sun afternoon. Surface dew points in the lower to mid 60s will keep humidity on the low side, and the combination of weak large scale suppression under the ridge should allow for mostly sunny skies and very low or near zero chances for rain through most of the day. The ridge axis will be moving out of the area later in the day, which could allow for some very isolated/weak convection to initiate Sun evening, but chances are less than 20 pct. A mid level trough will gradually impinge upon the region from the Great Lakes early in the day Monday. This feature will act to increase southerly flow ahead of the system and usher in a more humid and unstable air mass (ML CAPE values 1000-2000 J/kg). Daytime temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s, in addition to dew points in the mid 60s to lower 70s, and the presence of an approaching short wave should prove favorable for scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. The amount of deep layer shear is rather low (10-20kt of 0-6km shear), so the threat of widespread severe weather is on the low side. A few isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out Monday. We will also need to monitor the potential for Heat Advisories as well. Some of the heat indices currently being forecast for Monday are right on the edge of advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 319 AM update... A very weak, cyclonic flow will set up through the middle of the week with the overall air mass starting off hot and humid Mon night and Tuesday, but gradually cooling off and drying out Wed and Thu. Tuesday could end up being the most active day of the week with the introduction of modest deep layer shear (around 30-40 kt of 0-6km shear) later in the day, which would overlap steep lapse rates and around 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower and possibly mid 90s...and dew points in the lower 70s will make for very unstable conditions and fairly widespread thunderstorms activity later in the day. A few to several storms could become severe before sunset Tue. The upper short wave will continue to progress to the east/se on Wednesday along with the axis of moisture and instability. If the wave remains on track, convection is expected to develop along and east of a line from State College, PA to Binghamton to Albany and into northern New England. Areas to the east and se will remain hot and humid with another round of strong to possibly severe storms Wed afternoon. Conditions should improve Wed evening as the drier and more stable air moves in from the nw. The probability for more precipitation will be less than 20 percent into Thu with highs in the 70s to around 80 and dew points in the upper 50s to near 60. As for heat impacts, we will need to watch for Heat Advisory level conditions on Tuesday with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s in the southern tier NY valleys, and upper 90s to around 100 in the Wyoming Valley in PA. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Plenty of low level moisture will bring patchy fog and/or low ceilings through the mid-morning hours, before conditions return back to VFR by the mid-late morning. MVFR ceilings along with occasional rain showers will be possible for KAVP tonight into Saturday morning. MVFR to potentially Fuel Alternate ceilings may get as far northwest as KBGM late tonight/early Saturday morning, but otherwise the majority of the terminals should remain VFR at least through 12Z Saturday. There is also a small chance for patchy fog at KELM again tonight, but confidence is a bit lower due to uncertainty in cloud cover. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR, although a some scattered showers or a thunderstorm may bring occasional/brief restrictions. Saturday night...Patchy valley fog may bring occasional restrictions, especially at KELM. Otherwise mainly VFR. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Monday through Tuesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MWG