786
FXUS61 KBGM 130551
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
151 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will persist through the weekend, although
a few showers or thunderstorms will be possible at times today.
Temperatures will be on a warming trend through Tuesday, before
cooler conditions arrive for the middle part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
140 AM Update:

Main adjustment with this update was to back off on PoPs for
the area for the remainder of the overnight through the daytime
hours today as the majority of the rainfall will be located east
of the area. Still cannot rule out some steadier showers
clipping far eastern Pike and Sullivan counties, but even with
this possibility, the likely PoPs we previously had in the
forecast there is a bit overdone looking at radar trends
upstream.

745 PM Update...

Latest radar, satellite and model data is trending a touch east
with the rain and clouds with the coastal trough overnight into
Saturday. Adjusted sky cover, PoPs and QPF to show this trend.
Currently clouds are in place over the Catskills, Poconos and
portions of the Mohawk Valley/eastern Central NY. A few rain
showers are on radar east-southeast of Scranton across the
Poconos of NE PA. The HRRR and 3km NAM keep this general theme
going all night, with the highest PoPs now in the forecast right
along our CWA border for locations such as Hazleton--Daleville
and Milford PA. Further back to the north and west expect partly
cloudy skies overnight, with patchy for development and perhaps
a slow moving pop up shower. By daybreak Saturday and through
much of the day, the main area of rain now looks to be east of
our forecast area with just a slight chance for a pop up shower
or thunderstorm. Morning clouds east of Binghamton gradually
giveway to mainly sunny skies. Overall, for much of the area it
is shaping up to be a nice Saturday weather-wise for mid-July.
It will be very warm with highs in the 80s to near 90 and rather
humid conditions.

530 PM update...

With some tropical moisture streaming northward and a 500 mb
shortwave moving through tonight there will be some scattered
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms developing after sunset.
The best chances are in NEPA into the Southern Tier of NY as
that is where the deepest moisture is. Despite a through moving
through tonight, tomorrow is looking warmer as there will be
less clouds around and warmer air begins to advect in aloft.
Chances of showers and and thunderstorms will return in the
afternoon with the heat and humidity leading to some
instability.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM update...

Weak zonal flow on Sunday with warm air aloft will lead to
warmer high temperatures and dew points near 70 so heat indices
will rise into the 90s to near 100 in some of the deeper river
valleys of NEPA. With the zonal flow, upstream MCS`s in the
northern plains could lead to quick moving embedded shortwaves
that could trigger thunderstorms if an MCS can form tomorrow.
Right now chances of precipitation were kept low given the
uncertainty in the evolution of the convection tomorrow.

Monday is looking hot as well with similar highs as Sunday but
dew points will be 3 to 5 degrees higher making it more muggy.
Once again with the heat and humidity, instability develops
across the region and upstream convection could supply a trigger
to get convection going in the afternoon. Shear is fairly weak,
only around 20 knots but given the high instability, there is a
threat for a few microburst if thunderstorms are able to
develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
520 PM update...

The heat continues into Tuesday with potentially the warmest
temperatures and highest dew points. Much of the region reaches
the mid 90s to mid 100s for the heat index. There is potential
for it to be a little cooler if an approaching shortwave can
speed up and provide more clouds as well as develop showers and
thunderstorms earlier in the day. As the shortwave moves through
Tuesday night into Wednesday, there will be good chances for
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Shear does increase to 30
to 35 knots in ensemble means so timing of the passage will have
to be watched. Once the shortwave passes east mid week, cooler
and drier air advects in helping make for a better end to the
week with seasonable temperatures, lower dew points, and mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected throughout the next 24 hours
(at least through 06Z Sunday), but valley fog may bring IFR
visbys to KELM early this morning. The setup for fog is not as
ideal as last night there, but with mainly clear skies and some
low level moisture there, combined with climatology, at least
some fog/mist is likely there. Confidence in seeing any
restrictions from fog, low ceilings, or even any showers this
morning for KAVP and KBGM has significantly dropped from the
previous forecast, so therefore removed those restrictions with
this 06Z set of TAFs. Still cannot totally rule out brief
restrictions at KAVP, but confidence was not high enough to
include in the TAFs.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions; otherwise mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...AJG/MWG
LONG TERM...AJG/MWG
AVIATION...BJG