377
FXUS61 KBGM 140800
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will continue today, although an isolated
shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon.
Temperatures will become increasingly warmer and more humid
through Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions for the middle
and end of the week. There will also be a greater chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
400 AM Update:

With high pressure overhead, radiational cooling conditions has
set up with fog forming in the valleys. Any valley fog will
dissipate by mid-morning.

Flow will shift to more southwesterly today, which will advect
in a warmer airmass. Skies will generally be mostly sunny with
some scattered cumulus around. Cannot rule out an isolated
afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly across Northeast PA,
but the large majority of the area will remain dry all day.
Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90. Dew points
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, it will not be as humid as
Monday and Tuesday will be.

Tonight, a shortwave will move through the area, which will
result in scattered showers, especially across Central NY.
Enough elevated instability may be in place for a few isolated
thunderstorms as well. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be
present with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Heat and humidity builds on Monday, although this comes with
quite a bit of uncertainty. A shortwave riding along quasi-zonal
flow will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop. This will have the potential to limit daytime heating
and keep temperatures several degrees cooler than it would be
otherwise. Right now, forecasting highs to be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. With dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower
70s, it will also be rather humid. A few locations in the
valleys and urban areas will have the potential to have heat
indices approach the mid 90s. That being said, after
coordinating with our surrounding offices, opted to not issue
any Heat Advisories at this time, largely due to the strong
possibility that most areas do not reach criteria on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
230 PM update...

Heat and humidity increases during this period along with
precipitation chances and severe potential. A broad area of quasi-
zonal flow extends over the northeast Monday through Tuesday. A few
short waves move along this pattern bringing a more humid air
mass into the region. This could set off convective showers and
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Severe potential is
favorable both days with around 1000-2000 J/kg of ML CAPE and
20-30 kt of deep layer shear and weak to modest forcing from a
potential passing mid level short wave.

Held back on issuing an advisory for Monday as temperatures are
borderline with highs ranging in the mid to low 90s with dew points
in the 70s. Temperatures are forecasted to meet criteria for a
possible excessive heat watch Tuesday, but this is subject to
change based off whether showers develop earlier in the day
hindering day time heating. As of now temperatures on Tuesday
are forecasted climb into the upper 80s to mid 90s across the
region. Lows during this period will fall into the mid 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM update...

Upper level low pattern settles in north of the Great Lakes with a
trough dipping into our region on Wednesday. A surface cold front
follows along kicking off more showers and thunderstorms.
Environment remains somewhat unstable with the frontal passage
enabling the possibility of strong to severe storms. Cooler air
moves in behind the front with northwest flow in place. High
pressure begins to build over the midwest on Thursday with drier
air expanding into our region. Dry conditions are expected to
continue through the end of the period with high pressure in
control. Temperatures behind the front will range in the mid to
upper 70s during the day with lows in the 50s at night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Valley fog will likely result in airport min visby restrictions
at KELM early this morning, with patchy fog also possibly
impacting KITH at times with occasional IFR visby restrictions
possible there. Fog will dissipate by 12Z/13Z or so, with VFR
conditions expected after that. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at least through the next 24 hours (at least
through 06Z Monday).

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon;
otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG