Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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128 FXUS61 KBGM 150137 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 937 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry conditions continue through the overnight, although an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible overnight. Heat and humidity increase at the start of the work weak along with isolated severe thunderstorm potential. Cooler, less humid and quieter conditions follow for the second half of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 930 Update... Most of the shower activity has died down this evening but another batch of showers and thunderstorms are moving into western NY. These will make their way through tonight with most locations staying dry. 630 PM Update... Little change to the previous forecast. Chances of precipitation were expanded in the Finger Lakes region over the next couple of hours. 300 PM Update... Warm and pleasant conditions continue this afternoon and evening with mostly dry conditions expected. Gentle west to southwest flow settles in with warm air advection allowing highs to reach the mid to upper 80s this afternoon. With zonal flow aloft and an incoming short wave, scattered showers are expected over central NY tonight. Enough elevated instability may be in place for a few isolated thunderstorms as well. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be present with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Quasi-zonal flow persists Monday with another shortwave passing through the region. This leads to an increased potential for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Guidance shows inverted V soundings with CAPE values ranging 1,500-2000J/Kg, combined with 25- 30 knots of shear. These conditions suggest strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. SPC has our region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds being the main threat. Temperatures on Monday are forecasted to reach the mid 80s to low 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat index values are near advisory criteria with values ranging 95-100 degrees in NY and 100-104 degrees in NEPA. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most of CNY and all of NEPA for this update, but timing and location of previously mentioned showers could limit daytime heating. Otherwise showers are expected to continue through the evening hours dissipating around midnight. Overnight temperatures are forecasted to fall into the mid 60s to low 70s across the region. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A mid-level shortwave will move through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be dependent on how quickly cloud cover and any precipitation moves into or develops over the region. Modeled 925 mb temperatures would indicate most locations get into the low 90`s with enough humidity to get heat index values into the 95-100 degree range for valley locations. Given these values are already slightly above criteria, a heat advisory has been issued for Tuesday. Enough instability (1500 J/KG mixed CAPE for model average and lift does look present for the development of showers and thunderstorms. Some steepness of lapse rates in the low levels looks present. Some mid- level dry air and about 30 knots of 0-6KM bulk shear to promote the potential for gusty to damaging winds. These thunderstorms look to organize into clusters in the late afternoon and evening hours as they move through. A cold frontal boundary looks to then push through the region Wednesday starting a cooling trend. This should knock highs down several degrees. However, with the front nearby additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to be tracking through the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The front shifts south of the region Thursday with a slow clearing to start but then high pressure firmly builds into the region for Friday through the weekend. A much more pleasant feel to the air with some 50`s for lows and highs close to 80 each day. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 715 PM Update VFR conditions are expected through most of the taf period. With mid and high level clouds now moving into the area, and extending well back to the west it does not look like a good radiational cooling environment overnight. ELM`s crossover temperature is also rather low, around 56 degrees...and the overnight low is expected to hold in the mid-60s here...therefore fog it unlikely to develop for any of our taf sites tonight. Monday morning likely starts off generally quiet; although we cannot rule out an isolated or stray shower/storm. West- southwest winds increase between 7-15 kts, with a few gusts up to 20 kts in the afternoon. Late in the taf period the latest CAMS guidance is showing the potential for a line of thunderstorms to cross west to east over the area. There remains uncertainty in exact timing and placement with it being still farther out in time. For now, added a PROB30 groups to all taf sites except RME and AVP, for possible t`storms. Outlook... Monday night through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon; otherwise mainly VFR. Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ015- 016-018-022>025-036-037-055-056-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ES NEAR TERM...AJG/ES SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...ES/MJM