781
FXUS61 KBGM 200704
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
304 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and tonight, mainly across Northeastern PA and Catskills. A weak
front will bring isolated showers and storms to Central NY Sunday.
More widespread showers return by midweek. Temperatures trend
slightly warmer through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
305 AM Update...

Scattered high clouds continue to spread northward. Within the
breaks, fog is beginning to develop in the valleys of the Catskills
as seen on satellite. Similarly to yesterday morning, fog is
expected to spread in the valleys before lifting later this morning.
Today will start out dry, but a series of shortwaves just south of
the region will bring showers to the southern half of our CWA.
Isolated showers will be possible across NEPA and Catskills this
morning, but chances increase by the afternoon. Showers may drift
north into the Southern Tier as well. Models are showing about 500
J/kg of MLCAPE and 25 to 30 kts of shear. This will be enough to
support isolated to scattered thunderstorms, though severe weather
is not expected. Heading into the overnight hours, the environment
becomes more stable and thunderstorms will transition to just rain
showers.

These showers should be fairly light, though a brief downpour will
certainly be possible under thunderstorms. Forecasted QPF has
localized amounts up to a half inch. The latest NAM seems to be an
outlier as it has over an 1.5 inches of rainfall for some locations
across the Twin Tiers due to training of showers/storms. Other model
guidance is far from that extreme. Given dry conditions the last
couple of days hydro issues are not expected.

Showers will work their way out of the region early Sunday morning.
In areas that receive showers today/tonight, patchy fog may develop
thanks to the added moisture and light winds. Sunday will start out
dry but a weak front drops south from Canada into CNY, bringing
isolated showers and afternoon thunderstorms with it.

Temperatures today will max out in the upper 70s to mid 80s and then
fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight. Temperatures will trend
slightly warmer Sunday as most will observe 80s though a few
locations may just hang onto the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

Sunday will be mostly quiet and seasonable for most. A weak cold
front looks to dip into the region from the north starting in
the late morning hours. Moisture available for this front to
produce precipitation is very limited, lending to isolated
shower development with a possible rumble of thunder. Temps
Sunday will reach the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The weak front dissipates over the region Sunday night. The
center of a surface High will move overhead, bringing calm winds
to the valleys which should allow fog to develop. Overnight lows
will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s.

Monday will see warmer temperatures as winds shift to more SSW
and advect in a warmer airmass. Temps are expected to climb
into the mid to upper 80s. A weak shortwave will move into the
area as the ridge to the south weakens and slides eastward.
This, combined with increased moisture from SSW flow will allow
for a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to
develop during the afternoon and evening hours. The best chance
(30-40%) for precipitation will be over NEPA and into the
eastern portion of our CWA.

Rain chances continue through Monday night as another shortwave
moves across the region and moisture continues to advect into
the region. Lows fall into the mid 60s with dewpoints
increasing into the mid 60s as the night progresses.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
315 PM Update...

The weather pattern becomes much more active during this period
as a positively tilted upper level trough over eastern Canada
digs into the Great Lakes and central US on Tuesday. A closed
upper low will move into the Great Lakes from the north on
Wednesday, helping to get the overall troughing pattern to move
eastward by Thursday.

Instability and shear during this period look somewhat mellow,
with CAPE in the 500-1000 j/kg range and bulk shear around
25-30mph. Deterministic guidance from the GFS and EURO handle
the progression of the system differently. The GFS has a much
more amplified positively tilted trough on Tuesday, with allows
for a surface low to develop over western NY and move to the
ENE on Wednesday morning into the afternoon. The EURO, with
it`s less amplified trough keeps an open wave over the region
and continues to pump warm and moist air into the region as its
progression continues to be slower than the GFS. Ensemble
guidance does not show as amplified of a trough in the GFS run,
keeping the surface low from developing. The open wave does
remain, allowing for rain and thunderstorms to develop. The EURO
ensemble is close to the deterministic. Because of this, a lean
toward the EURO was taken with NBM guidance as the base for the
forecast.

So overall, Tues thru Thursday will see warm and humid temps,
with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Thunderstorm chances will be the greatest during the afternoon
and evening hours, with a chance for scattered rain showers
during the morning hours as weak shortwaves ripple through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Fog may
develop at ELM and result in restrictions, but confidence is low
given that fog has not impacted ELM the last couple of nights
under similar conditions. Scattered showers develop after 12z
today and may continue into the overnight hours. The best chance
will be at AVP, though showers may drift north to ELM and BGM.
If a shower were to pass directly over a terminal, then
restrictions may be possible. Winds will be light throughout
this TAF period.


Outlook...

Sunday through Monday...Mainly VFR

Tuesday and Wednesday...Rain chances with associated
restrictions. Best chance of rain in the late afternoon, evening
and early overnight hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BTL