479
FXUS61 KBGM 170716
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
316 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trailing cold front will move through the area on Wednesday,
bringing cooler temperatures but lingering shower and
thunderstorm chances. Fair weather and cooler temperatures are
expected Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
155 AM Update...
Should stay dry through the overnight hours. No major changes to
the very near term forecast at this time.

740 PM update...
Precipitation chances were lowered below slight chance this
update as the thunderstorms have exited the region and the
thunderstorms near Niagara Falls should dissipate after sunset.
Small adjustments were made to overnight lows as well with the
skies being less cloudy.

139 PM update...
Convection continues to develop across the western Finger Lakes
and a broad area of w-central NY out ahead of an approaching
MCV that is rotating eastward across western NY. A layer of
strong 500mb winds (40-50 kts) associated with low-amplitude
short wave are swinging through the region and combining with
backed southerly surface winds (10-20 kts) to produce a
confined area of strong deep layer shear. This strong forcing is
working in tandem with a passing mesoscale convective vortex and
a rapidly destabilizing environment to produce very favorable
conditions for significant convective growth that will occur
over the next several hours and progress to the east. These
storms are starting out relatively discrete, but should
eventually evolve into a more linear mode after a couple hours
and the upper short wave catches up from the west.

A Severe Thunderstorms Watch is in effect until 6 PM this
evening with the main threat being damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Cannot rule out hail as well.

The storms are expected to move rapidly to the east early this
evening and leave in their wake lingering scattered clouds and a
few light rain showers and. Winds will become more westerly and
temperatures will drop into the 60s with a brief period of much
lower humidity. The atmosphere recharges tomorrow morning with
temperatures quickly rising back into the 80s with dew points
into the lower 70s.

A trailing cold front over Lake Erie will push eastward and be
the focus of attention for more convective development during
the first half of the day Wednesday. Showers and storms are
expected to blossom over the central part of NY and spread to
the east/southeast through the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Some of these storms could becomes strong to
severe...mainly east and south east of a line from Corning to
Utica. The front moves quickly to the east as drier and cooler
air arrives from the west/nw.

Temperatures will warm into the 80s in NY and into the upper 80s
in ne PA Wed, but then cool into the 60s with dew points in the
50s by Wed night. Some patchy valley fog is possible.


1010 AM update...
We continue to track the remnants of a Midwest MCS with an
embedded MCV across southern Ontario this morning which is
expected to be the focal point for strong forcing that will
interact with a very unstable air mass and produce strong and
severe thunderstorms across a good portion of central NY this
afternoon. The SPC has upgraded the Day 1 Convective Outlook and
placed an Enhanced area of risk from the northern Finger Lakes
east to the western Mohawk Valley, and farther east into
southern VT. The main threat will be damaging straight-line
winds and a couple embedded tornadoes as well. Timing is still
questionable, but the most favorable start time looks to be as
early as 12-1 PM in the northern Finger Lakes, and potentially
and ending time as late as 8 PM near Utica and Cooperstown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

High pressure will be in control for the short term period.
Northwesterly flow and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to
fall into the low to mid 50s Thursday night. Then to finish out the
work week, there will be plenty of sunshine for all. Keeping the
previous forecast over the slightly cooler new guidance, highs on
Friday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Friday night will be
slightly warmer that the previous night as temperatures will
fall back into the 50s, though a couple valley locations may
hold onto the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the Northeast for most of the
weekend. Quiet conditions continue into Saturday, though models
continue to pull in showers from the south during the daytime hours.
However, based on model soundings, moisture looks to be lacking,
especially close to the surface. This forecast keeps conditions dry
but if something were to develop, sprinkles/drizzle would be
expected. Shower chances look slightly better Sunday as a weak front
drops south from Canada. Models do show more moisture across CNY, so
a slight chance for showers remains in the forecast. These showers
would be light as well, so a washout is not expected for the second
half of the weekend.

Conditions begin to change early next week as a stationary front
that was located over the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually
moves north. Weak waves north of this front may support some stray
showers and thunderstorms late Monday and into the overnight hours.
Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesdsay as the front drifts
even further northward and a weak low moves east along the boundary.

Temperatures this period will max out in the upper 70s and 80s.
Overnight temps will fall into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight. Added back some light
for to ELM given the narrowing dewpoint depression and lack of
cloud cover.

Showers and thunderstorms return later today, with the best
coverage/chances south of I-90. Kept mention of thunder south of
SYR and RME, but changed PROB30 groups to TEMPOs given
increasing confidence in timing.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL/DK
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG/MPH