127
FXUS61 KBGM 171331
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
931 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trailing cold front will move through the area today, bringing
one last round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few
storms may again become severe, with damaging wind gusts. An
extended period of fair weather looks settle in for Thursday
and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

930 AM Update...

Forecast remaining mostly on-track. Extensive cloud cover across
the northwestern half of the CWA this morning and increased
cloud cover with this update based on latest METSAT. These
clouds will limit instability and lower the risk for severe
storms later this afternoon. Best chance for severe weather
today will be across the NE PA and into the southern Catskills
in Sullivan County NY.

355 AM Update...

A deep upper level trough over central Ontario will move slowly
eastward today, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft across
the northeastern states. A weak shortwave trough embedded in the
southwesterly flow will drift through the area this afternoon,
as a cold front currently over the eastern Great Lakes heads
east. This will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, particularly over eastern parts of
the CWA where moisture and instability ahead of the front will
linger into the afternoon hours. The risk of severe weather will
be most pronounced near and SE of the I-88 corridor, where bulk
shear will be strongest (40 knots) and where the timing of the
cold front passage will maximize diurnal heating, building
stronger instability. Wind shear in the lowest levels will be
weaker than yesterday, and the primary threat from severe
thunderstorms looks to be isolated damaging wind gusts from the
more typical multi-cell clusters/bowing segments, and perhaps a
little less organized/mature compared to what we`ve experienced
the last couple of days.

Precip will push east of the area late tonight, with some patchy
valley fog possible in the most sheltered valleys. Fair weather
is expected through Thursday with temperatures topping out in
70s to lower-80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
315 AM Update...

High pressure will be in control for the short term period.
Northwesterly flow and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to
fall into the low to mid 50s Thursday night. Then to finish out the
work week, there will be plenty of sunshine for all. Keeping the
previous forecast over the slightly cooler new guidance, highs on
Friday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Friday night will be
slightly warmer that the previous night as temperatures will
fall back into the 50s, though a couple valley locations may
hold onto the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the Northeast for most of the
weekend. Quiet conditions continue into Saturday, though models
continue to pull in showers from the south during the daytime hours.
However, based on model soundings, moisture looks to be lacking,
especially close to the surface. This forecast keeps conditions dry
but if something were to develop, sprinkles/drizzle would be
expected. Shower chances look slightly better Sunday as a weak front
drops south from Canada. Models do show more moisture across CNY, so
a slight chance for showers remains in the forecast. These showers
would be light as well, so a washout is not expected for the second
half of the weekend.

Conditions begin to change early next week as a stationary front
that was located over the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually
moves north. Weak waves north of this front may support some stray
showers and thunderstorms late Monday and into the overnight hours.
Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesdsay as the front drifts
even further northward and a weak low moves east along the boundary.

Temperatures this period will max out in the upper 70s and 80s.
Overnight temps will fall into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions this morning as valley fog failed to develop at
ELM. Showers and thunderstorms will return later today, with
the best coverage/chances south of I-90. Kept mention of thunder
south of SYR and RME, continuing TEMPO groups elsewhere given
increasing confidence in timing of storms this afternoon. Some
patchy valley fog is possible again tonight, but overall
confidence is low as cloud cover is likely to persist behind the
cold front, so kept vis restrictions out of the ELM TAF for
now.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH
SHORT TERM...BTL/DK
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG/MPH