794
FXUS61 KBGM 180524
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
124 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front pushes through the area this afternoon and evening
with another round of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms
may become severe, with damaging wind gusts. An extended period
of fair weather is expected starting Thursday and lasting into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1225 AM Update...

PoPs were updated as some showers are lingering east of I-81.
These should move out within the next hour or two. While dry
conditions are then expected, some lingering showers are moving
through Central PA and could clip the Wyoming Valley. PoPs may
need to be touched up again if those continue. Patchy fog was
added to a large portion of the area. Visibilities have been
reduced at a few locations and dewpt depressions are low. With
skies continuing to clear, fog will likely spread. Temperatures
were touched up with this update as well as cloud cover has kept
temperatures more mild. Temperatures were bumped up slightly
through the rest of the overnight hours.

2 PM Update...

Upper trough and associated surface cold front is pushing
through the region this afternoon and evening. Showers and
thunderstorms have popped up, with the strongest showers and
storms south of I88 corridor. Most of central NY saw extensive
cloud cover this morning into early this afternoon and this
limited heating across the area. The best instability is south
and east of where these clouds lined up, with CAPE values in NE
PA and into the Catskills around 1500 J/kg. Mid level lapse
rates are quite weak according to SPC mesoanalysis, however they
will likely get a little jump later this afternoon as upper
trough gets closer. Most storm structures to this point have
displayed weak updrafts and are having a tough time staying
organized, but this may change as they enter a more favorable
environment as they head further south and east. A few severe
thunderstorms are possible, and severe thunderstorm watch across
most of NE PA and in Delaware/Sullivan counties in NY is valid
until 8 PM this evening.

Cold front exits the region later tonight, bringing cooler and
dry conditions for tomorrow. Highs on Thursday will top out in
the upper 70s most areas under mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow
night will be clear and chilly, with lows dipping into the lower
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
140 PM Update...

Upper level trough along with surface high pressure will be in
control Friday. Calm and dry conditions are expected with mostly
sunny skies. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the more
comfortable side with highs ranging in the mid to upper 70s with
some spots in the low 80s. Calm winds and clear skies continue
overnight with radiational cooling allowing temperatures to fall
into the 50s across the region.

Upper level heights lift by Saturday as the pattern transitions
to zonal flow aloft with high pressure sliding east over our
region. Conditions remain mostly dry for most of the day with
some models trying to hint at possible showers moving in
Saturday evening. Despite this model soundings continue to show
dry air in the low levels, so if anything were to develop it
would be in the form of sprinkles. Otherwise flow becomes south
to southwest with slightly warmer temperatures expected. Highs
will range in the upper 70s to low 80s by the afternoon.
Overnight temperatures will range slightly warmer in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM Update...

A weak cold front moves north to south over our region on Sunday
kicking of possible showers in CNY. Mainly expecting showers to be
light in nature as frontal system seems to lack moisture. Conditions
begin to change early next week as a stationary front that was
located over the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually moves
north. Weak waves north of this front may support some stray showers
and thunderstorms late Monday and into the overnight hours. Chances
for showers and storms increase Tuesdsay as the front drifts even
further northward and a weak low moves east along the boundary.
Models begin to diverge on Wednesday in terms of overall
pattern, otherwise southerly flow organizes advecting more
moisture into the region. Showers are anticipated at this time
for Wednesday. Temperatures this period will max out in the
upper 70s and 80s. Overnight temps will fall into the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog has developed at ITH, ELM, and AVP. With skies clearing and
conditions starting to become more favorable for fog, this will
likely continue at these terminals. The uncertainty is with how
visibilities will respond as guidance is not handling it well.
BGM could also see fog after 09z. Due to the uncertainty, tempo
groups were used for the possibility of visibilities bouncing
around.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected after 12z at all
terminals. Winds will be light but do become gusty in the
afternoon. Peak gusts around 15 kts will be possible at most
terminals. Winds then become calmer again this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BTL/ES
AVIATION...BTL