249
FXUS61 KBGM 180715
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
315 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work
week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also
continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out.
More widespread showers return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
315 AM Update...

Skies will continue to clear through the morning hours. Some stray
showers passing through NEPA will be through the region prior to
sunrise. Fog that has developed in the valleys will clear out
shortly after sunrise. The rest of the day will be quiet as surface
high pressure builds into the region. Since skies are expected to be
mostly sunny today, temperatures were bumped up a degree or two
above most guidance. As a result, highs will be in the mid 70s to
low 80s for most though the Wyoming Valley will see highs in the mid
80s. Winds will become breezy this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds should be
favorable for fog develop due to good radiational cooling. Model
soundings are not showing much of an inversion at the surface,
though do have some low-level moisture. With low dewpoint
depressions forecasted, fog was added to the forecast but limited to
the river valleys for now. Temperatures were a blend of NBM and NBM
10th percentile because flow becomes northwesterly overnight as an
upper-level trough moves through. Lows will in the 50s, though some
locations may dip into the 40s. Another quiet day is expected Friday
with high pressure still in control. Temperatures will climb into
the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
140 PM Update...

Upper level trough along with surface high pressure will be in
control Friday. Calm and dry conditions are expected with mostly
sunny skies. Northwest flow will keep temperatures on the more
comfortable side with highs ranging in the mid to upper 70s with
some spots in the low 80s. Calm winds and clear skies continue
overnight with radiational cooling allowing temperatures to fall
into the 50s across the region.

Upper level heights lift by Saturday as the pattern transitions
to zonal flow aloft with high pressure sliding east over our
region. Conditions remain mostly dry for most of the day with
some models trying to hint at possible showers moving in
Saturday evening. Despite this model soundings continue to show
dry air in the low levels, so if anything were to develop it
would be in the form of sprinkles. Otherwise flow becomes south
to southwest with slightly warmer temperatures expected. Highs
will range in the upper 70s to low 80s by the afternoon.
Overnight temperatures will range slightly warmer in the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM Update...

A weak cold front moves north to south over our region on Sunday
kicking of possible showers in CNY. Mainly expecting showers to be
light in nature as frontal system seems to lack moisture. Conditions
begin to change early next week as a stationary front that was
located over the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually moves
north. Weak waves north of this front may support some stray showers
and thunderstorms late Monday and into the overnight hours. Chances
for showers and storms increase Tuesdsay as the front drifts even
further northward and a weak low moves east along the boundary.
Models begin to diverge on Wednesday in terms of overall
pattern, otherwise southerly flow organizes advecting more
moisture into the region. Showers are anticipated at this time
for Wednesday. Temperatures this period will max out in the
upper 70s and 80s. Overnight temps will fall into the 50s and
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fog has developed at ITH, ELM, and AVP. With skies clearing and
conditions starting to become more favorable for fog, this will
likely continue at these terminals. The uncertainty is with how
visibilities will respond as guidance is not handling it well.
BGM could also see fog after 09z. Due to the uncertainty, tempo
groups were used for the possibility of visibilities bouncing
around.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected after 12z at all
terminals. Winds will be light but do become gusty in the
afternoon. Peak gusts around 15 kts will be possible at most
terminals. Winds then become calmer again this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BTL/ES
AVIATION...BTL