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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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566 FXUS61 KBGM 180759 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 359 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out. More widespread showers return early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 315 AM Update... Skies will continue to clear through the morning hours. Some stray showers passing through NEPA will be through the region prior to sunrise. Fog that has developed in the valleys will clear out shortly after sunrise. The rest of the day will be quiet as surface high pressure builds into the region. Since skies are expected to be mostly sunny today, temperatures were bumped up a degree or two above most guidance. As a result, highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s for most though the Wyoming Valley will see highs in the mid 80s. Winds will become breezy this afternoon. Overnight tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds should be favorable for fog develop due to good radiational cooling. Model soundings are not showing much of an inversion at the surface, though do have some low-level moisture. With low dewpoint depressions forecasted, fog was added to the forecast but limited to the river valleys for now. Temperatures were a blend of NBM and NBM 10th percentile because flow becomes northwesterly overnight as an upper-level trough moves through. Lows will in the 50s, though some locations may dip into the 40s. Another quiet day is expected Friday with high pressure still in control. Temperatures will climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 345 AM Update Quiet weather Friday night, with some patchy valley fog expected as the region remains under weak surface high pressure. Seasonably cool with lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Saturday starts off quiet with partly sunny skies. Moisture gradually increases across NE PA and the Catskills from the south, along a weak surface trough. Model guidance shows some instability as well. Coverage of any pop up showers or t`storms remains questionable; but went ahead an included a slight chance across most of NE PA and up into the southern Catskills based on the 00z GFS. The rest of the forecast area stays dry, with drier air and more sunshine working in from the northwest late in the day. It will be warm, with highs in the low to mid-80s. Skies clear Saturday night, with light winds and more valley fog possible. Sunday is looking mostly sunny, with just an outside chance for a stray shower across northern Oneida county along a weak boundary. Starting off near 60 in the morning, with another warm afternoon well into the 80s areawide. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 345 AM Update This period starts off mainly dry and quiet on Monday. A south- southwest return flow does begin Monday afternoon, so cannot completely rule out a stray shower or t`storm; mainly across the Poconos. Temperatures remain slight above average, well into the 80s once again. After this, our weather pattern looks to turn much more active. Moisture and instability increase Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday between an offshore Bermuda High and a slow moving trough trekking east from the Great Lakes region. This provides a deep south-southwest flow of moisture into our area. PWATs increase up between 1.7 to 2.0 inches during this timeframe. By Thursday, the center of the upper level trough/low is still near lake Michigan...so again it is a very slow moving feature. Out ahead of the parent trough, some shortwave disturbances will roll through our area, helping to initiate convection. Early indications are for deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, so some organized convection seems possible. Generally followed the blended ensemble guidance for this portion of the forecast, but decreased PoPs some into the high chance/scattered range especially for days 7-8 as the NBM can sometimes be too high with storm coverage this far out...especially considering the main energy with the trough remains back to our west. Temperatures are rather steady in the low to mid-80s with increasing humidity and partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies each day. Expect muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s for most locations. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fog has developed at ITH, ELM, and AVP. With skies clearing and conditions starting to become more favorable for fog, this will likely continue at these terminals. The uncertainty is with how visibilities will respond as guidance is not handling it well. BGM could also see fog after 09z. Due to the uncertainty, tempo groups were used for the possibility of visibilities bouncing around. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected after 12z at all terminals. Winds will be light but do become gusty in the afternoon. Peak gusts around 15 kts will be possible at most terminals. Winds then become calmer again this evening. Outlook... Thursday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTL NEAR TERM...BTL SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...BTL