769
FXUS61 KBGM 181745
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
145 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work
week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also
continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out.
More widespread showers return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1220 PM Update...

Wonderful conditions remain across the area and will continue
through the evening. No changes made to the forecast in this
update as it remains on track.

925 AM Update...

Pleasant conditions will continue this morning. Mostly sunny
skies will become partly cloudy as NW flow brings some lake
effect clouds to the region. Temps currently in the mid 60s to
low 70s will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s today. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.

635 AM Update...

Temperatures needed updated as the cloud cover over NEPA and the
Catskills has keep conditions warmer than previously forecasted.
Based on the latest obs, temps were touched up over the next few
hours. Sky cover was also updated based satellite imagery. Fog
is beginning to lift and visibilities are improving. Fog should
fully clear within the next hour or so.

315 AM Update...

Skies will continue to clear through the morning hours. Some stray
showers passing through NEPA will be through the region prior to
sunrise. Fog that has developed in the valleys will clear out
shortly after sunrise. The rest of the day will be quiet as surface
high pressure builds into the region. Since skies are expected to be
mostly sunny today, temperatures were bumped up a degree or two
above most guidance. As a result, highs will be in the mid 70s to
low 80s for most though the Wyoming Valley will see highs in the mid
80s. Winds will become breezy this afternoon.

Overnight tonight, mostly clear skies and light winds should be
favorable for fog develop due to good radiational cooling. Model
soundings are not showing much of an inversion at the surface,
though do have some low-level moisture. With low dewpoint
depressions forecasted, fog was added to the forecast but limited to
the river valleys for now. Temperatures were a blend of NBM and NBM
10th percentile because flow becomes northwesterly overnight as an
upper-level trough moves through. Lows will in the 50s, though some
locations may dip into the 40s. Another quiet day is expected Friday
with high pressure still in control. Temperatures will climb into
the mid 70s to low 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update

Quiet weather Friday night, with some patchy valley fog expected
as the region remains under weak surface high pressure.
Seasonably cool with lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Saturday
starts off quiet with partly sunny skies. Moisture gradually
increases across NE PA and the Catskills from the south, along a
weak surface trough. Model guidance shows some instability as
well. Coverage of any pop up showers or t`storms remains
questionable; but went ahead an included a slight chance across
most of NE PA and up into the southern Catskills based on the
00z GFS. The rest of the forecast area stays dry, with drier air
and more sunshine working in from the northwest late in the
day. It will be warm, with highs in the low to mid-80s. Skies
clear Saturday night, with light winds and more valley fog
possible. Sunday is looking mostly sunny, with just an outside
chance for a stray shower across northern Oneida county along a
weak boundary. Starting off near 60 in the morning, with another
warm afternoon well into the 80s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 AM Update

This period starts off mainly dry and quiet on Monday. A south-
southwest return flow does begin Monday afternoon, so cannot
completely rule out a stray shower or t`storm; mainly across the
Poconos. Temperatures remain slight above average, well into the
80s once again.

After this, our weather pattern looks to turn much more active.
Moisture and instability increase Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday between an offshore Bermuda High and a slow moving
trough trekking east from the Great Lakes region. This provides
a deep south-southwest flow of moisture into our area. PWATs
increase up between 1.7 to 2.0 inches during this timeframe. By
Thursday, the center of the upper level trough/low is still near
lake Michigan...so again it is a very slow moving feature. Out
ahead of the parent trough, some shortwave disturbances will
roll through our area, helping to initiate convection. Early
indications are for deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range each
afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, so some organized convection
seems possible.

Generally followed the blended ensemble guidance for this
portion of the forecast, but decreased PoPs some into the high
chance/scattered range especially for days 7-8 as the NBM can
sometimes be too high with storm coverage this far
out...especially considering the main energy with the trough
remains back to our west. Temperatures are rather steady in the
low to mid-80s with increasing humidity and partly sunny to
mostly cloudy skies each day. Expect muggy overnight lows in
the mid to upper 60s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building into the area will bring mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period.

Fog chances return tonight for the valleys, with ELM and RME
currently having the best chance to see restrictions. Confidence
was high enough to include a TEMPO IFR period for fog tonight at
ELM. Winds should go calm with a period of clearing after 5z
that should allow radiational cooling to develop fog. Confidence
in fog formation impacting RME is lower so MVFR conditions were
introduced into the TAF. Hopefully guidance will give us a
better idea later this evening. ITH and BGM have some very small
chances of seeing restrictions but confidence is not high enough
to include it in the TAFs at this time.


Outlook...

Thursday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC