062
FXUS61 KBGM 181810
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
210 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the work
week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions also
continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be ruled out.
More widespread showers return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
155 PM Update...

A welcomed quiet weather day after an extremely active week of
destructive weather. High pressure continuing to build into the
region from the west will continue to bring NW flow and cooler
and drier air into the region. Fair weather cumulus clouds will
persist this afternoon, dissipating by the evening hours. A
period of clearing tonight will allow for radiational cooling to
drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s, with patchy valley
fog developing across our normal foggy areas. With dry air in
place and mostly clear skies in the morning, this fog should
dissipate around 8am.

Friday will be very similar to today with highs in the mid 70s
to low 80s and mostly clear skies giving way to scattered
afternoon cumulus clouds. The center of the surface high will
move over the region by the evening hours, bringing calm winds
and mostly clear skies. A mid-level ridge building to the south
of us will bring SW flow and push clouds into the area during
the overnight hours, limiting radiational cooling and thus fog
formation. Valley fog may develop early in the overnight hours
with the clear skies present but will have a tougher time
forming later in the night as clouds move overhead and reflect
the longwave radiation back to the surface. Lows are expected
to be in the mid to upper 50s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update

Quiet weather Friday night, with some patchy valley fog expected
as the region remains under weak surface high pressure.
Seasonably cool with lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Saturday
starts off quiet with partly sunny skies. Moisture gradually
increases across NE PA and the Catskills from the south, along a
weak surface trough. Model guidance shows some instability as
well. Coverage of any pop up showers or t`storms remains
questionable; but went ahead an included a slight chance across
most of NE PA and up into the southern Catskills based on the
00z GFS. The rest of the forecast area stays dry, with drier air
and more sunshine working in from the northwest late in the
day. It will be warm, with highs in the low to mid-80s. Skies
clear Saturday night, with light winds and more valley fog
possible. Sunday is looking mostly sunny, with just an outside
chance for a stray shower across northern Oneida county along a
weak boundary. Starting off near 60 in the morning, with another
warm afternoon well into the 80s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 AM Update

This period starts off mainly dry and quiet on Monday. A south-
southwest return flow does begin Monday afternoon, so cannot
completely rule out a stray shower or t`storm; mainly across the
Poconos. Temperatures remain slight above average, well into the
80s once again.

After this, our weather pattern looks to turn much more active.
Moisture and instability increase Tuesday, Wednesday and
Thursday between an offshore Bermuda High and a slow moving
trough trekking east from the Great Lakes region. This provides
a deep south-southwest flow of moisture into our area. PWATs
increase up between 1.7 to 2.0 inches during this timeframe. By
Thursday, the center of the upper level trough/low is still near
lake Michigan...so again it is a very slow moving feature. Out
ahead of the parent trough, some shortwave disturbances will
roll through our area, helping to initiate convection. Early
indications are for deep layer shear in the 30-50 kt range each
afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, so some organized convection
seems possible.

Generally followed the blended ensemble guidance for this
portion of the forecast, but decreased PoPs some into the high
chance/scattered range especially for days 7-8 as the NBM can
sometimes be too high with storm coverage this far
out...especially considering the main energy with the trough
remains back to our west. Temperatures are rather steady in the
low to mid-80s with increasing humidity and partly sunny to
mostly cloudy skies each day. Expect muggy overnight lows in
the mid to upper 60s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure building into the area will bring mostly VFR
conditions through the TAF period.

Fog chances return tonight for the valleys, with ELM and RME
currently having the best chance to see restrictions. Confidence
was high enough to include a TEMPO IFR period for fog tonight at
ELM. Winds should go calm with a period of clearing after 5z
that should allow radiational cooling to develop fog. Confidence
in fog formation impacting RME is lower so MVFR conditions were
introduced into the TAF. Hopefully guidance will give us a
better idea later this evening. ITH and BGM have some very small
chances of seeing restrictions but confidence is not high enough
to include it in the TAFs at this time.


Outlook...

Thursday through Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC