467
FXUS61 KBGM 190541
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
141 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and tranquil conditions are expected the rest of the
week. Temperatures trend warmer this weekend as quiet conditions
also continue, though a stray passing shower or two cannot be
ruled out. More widespread showers return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM Update...

Very few changes were needed with this update as the forecast
remains on track. One change to note was with fair weather
cumulus expected tomorrow, sky cover was increased over a wider
area of CNY to have partly cloudy skies for the afternoon hours.

930 PM Update...

Just some minor adjustments made at this time with the forecast
remaining on track this evening.

635 PM Update...

Not much to change through tonight as high pressure builds in
and skies turn out mostly clear, setting up good radiational
cooling. With the flow out of the northwest off the lakes
tomorrow, did add some more clouds across CNY as there tends to
be more fair weather CU that develops as the day goes on than
what guidance suggests; otherwise it will be a nice day.

155 PM Update...

A welcomed quiet weather day after an extremely active week of
destructive weather. High pressure continuing to build into the
region from the west will continue to bring NW flow and cooler
and drier air into the region. Fair weather cumulus clouds will
persist this afternoon, dissipating by the evening hours. A
period of clearing tonight will allow for radiational cooling to
drop temperatures into the low to mid 50s, with patchy valley
fog developing across our normal foggy areas. With dry air in
place and mostly clear skies in the morning, this fog should
dissipate around 8am.

Friday will be very similar to today with highs in the mid 70s
to low 80s and mostly clear skies giving way to scattered
afternoon cumulus clouds. The center of the surface high will
move over the region by the evening hours, bringing calm winds
and mostly clear skies. A mid-level ridge building to the south
of us will bring SW flow and push clouds into the area during
the overnight hours, limiting radiational cooling and thus fog
formation. Valley fog may develop early in the overnight hours
with the clear skies present but will have a tougher time
forming later in the night as clouds move overhead and reflect
the longwave radiation back to the surface. Lows are expected
to be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...

Quiet start is expected for Saturday with moisture advection
attempting to move in during the afternoon. With high pressure
lingering over our region dry appears to win over. If showers
materialize mostly expecting a slight chance over northeast PA
and the western Catskills, the rest of the forecast area stays
dry. Otherwise with light westerly winds and partly sunny skies
temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Somewhat
clear skies work their way back into the region overnight with
forecasted lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Similar conditions are expected on Sunday with dry conditions
staying in place through the morning. A weak boundary starts to push
surface high just south of our region. As a result showers may work
their way into the northern portion of our region just along the
boundary. Otherwise mostly sunny skies are expected with warm
temperatures ranging in the low to mid 80s during the afternoon.
Temperatures overnight return to the upper 50s to low 60s with
clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
220 PM Update...

A more active pattern returns this week. Dry conditions hold
out for the first part of Monday before a weak moisture starved
cold front attempts to move over our region from the north. Not
expecting much precipitation with this feature, but southwest
flow may advect moisture into the region kicking off some
afternoon showers for northeast PA. As this front attempts to
pass over our region another stationary boundary over Maryland
slows it down. Therefore our region gets placed inbetween both
features by Tuesday and Wednesday with strong southerly flow
aloft. Moisture gets advected into our region along this pattern
with some organized convection possible. Afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday as this
pattern is slow moving. Temperatures during this period will
range warmer on Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid
80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Temperatures cool slightly
Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
with mild overnight lows again in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With light winds and clear skies, conditions are favorable for
fog to develop. however, it has been much slower to develop than
last night. Because of this, there remains uncertainty with
timing and restrictions. Given that BGM did not see fog 18 to 24
hours ago, that tempo was removed. With guidance still
targeting ELM, ITH, and RME, those tempos remain with
restrictions possible.

By 12z, any fog that does develop will clear up and VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Winds
will be light throughout this TAF period as well.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR; Low chance for showers at
AVP and BGM Saturday afternoon.

Tuesday...Rain chances return with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL