640
FXUS61 KBGM 201914
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
314 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be around into
tonight, mainly across Northeastern PA and Catskills. A weak
front will bring isolated showers and storms to Central NY
Sunday. More widespread showers return by midweek. Temperatures
trend slightly warmer through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
310 PM Update:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon
and into tonight, mainly over Northeast PA and the Catskills, as
pieces of upper energy passing by south of the area tap into
moisture from a stalled boundary draped across the mid-Atlantic.
With the increase in moisture, PWATs across NE PA and the
Catskills will top out between 1.00-1.50 inches, so there can be
some locally heavy rainfall with any shower or storm. If there
is some training of storms through this corridor, then there
could be some ponding of water in poor drainage areas. Most of
the convection seems to dissipate between 06-08Z. Areas of
valley fog are expected to form overnight. Lows overnight range
from the mid 50s to the low 60s.

Sunday is expected to start out dry with some sunshine, then a
cold front dropping south out of Canada will move over CNY in
the afternoon. This front is expected to be running into dry air
over the region, so any afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
expected to be pretty spotty in nature with PoPs under
generally under 20-25%. Any convection will wane with the
heating of the day and dry conditions take over Sunday night.
Highs Sunday are expected to be in the upper 70s and low 80s
near and north of the front, while temperatures reach the low
and mid 80s south of the boundary from the Twin Tiers south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update:

Overall, a rather unsettled period of weather is expected in the
short term period, especially on Tuesday. Increasingly moist,
southerly flow associated with a deepening trough over the
Midwest U.S and Ohio Valley will allow for an increasing chance
for showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon with
peak heating. PWATs will also be on the rise, which means that
locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Much of the
activity on Monday will likely be more on the scattered side,
but it will become more widespread by Tuesday afternoon with
enhancement from an embedded shortwave moving through.
Otherwise, it will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s
to mid 80s each day, along with increasingly humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
255 PM Update:

Unsettled weather likely continues through at least the first
half of the long term period before quieter weather may arrive
by the Friday/Saturday timeframe. A rather deep upper level trough
for this time of the year will slowly work its way eastward
from the Ohio Valley through our region. This, combined with
multiple shortwaves passing through and a moist airmass will set
the stage for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms,
especially Wednesday and Thursday afternoons with peak heating.
By Friday, the upper level low will move east of the area, which
will likely bring drier conditions, although still some spotty
showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Friday or Saturday
afternoons. Aside from the unsettled weather, it will generally
be partly sunny with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s each day,
with possibly slightly warmer conditions ahead for Saturday.
With dew points somewhat elevated, it will also be humid
throughout this period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected much of the time through the TAF
period. Scattered showers and even a thunderstorm or two are
expected this afternoon through the first part of tonight across
NE PA and the Catskills. While a stray shower cannot be ruled
out reaching as far north as BGM, AVP will have the best chance
of seeing precipitation, but given the scattered, pop up nature
of the showers, continued with VCSH in the TAF. Showers can be
locally heavy, so a TEMPO group was added from 20-23Z to try to
zero in on the best chance for possible restrictions from
showers. A thunderstorm for the terminal cannot be ruled out as
well, but confidence is too low to add to the TAF.

Similar to this morning, fog will develop after 06z in the
valleys. Confidence is highest at ELM, where visibilities may
fall into the IFR category. If the Wyoming Valley does see some
precipitation and there are some breaks in the cloud cover, then
there is the chance for some fog to form at AVP as well.

A front dropping into central NY from the north could lead to
isolated showers near the end of the TAF period for RME, SYR
and ITH.


Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Mainly VFR; fog possible
Monday morning.

Tuesday through Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions. Best chance of rain in the late
afternoon, evening and early overnight hours.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...BTL/DK