Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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640 FXUS61 KBGM 050711 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 311 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot and muggy day expected with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. A weak front moves through tonight helping to move some of the moisture out of the region with Saturday looking drier especially later in the day. Hot and muggy weather returns next week with frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 315 AM Update... Cloudy skies overnight has helped keep temperatures warmer with most of the region still in the 70s early this morning. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have developed in central PA and will be moving into NEPA and the Southern Tier around mid to late morning. Temperatures for the late morning through the afternoon were lowered as there will likely be a cold pool left behind by the rain in the morning. Dew points were once again a little high with the NBM so some of the NBM 10th as well as the Canadian Reg were blended in to drop dew points from the mid 70s to low 70s. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the precipitation chances through the day as the morning rain will stabilize things but most forecast soundings do have CAPE recovering by the mid to late afternoon. Precipitation chances were kept through the afternoon despite CAMs not showing much. Soundings show a bit of CIN but it would not be too hard to be a degree or 2 warmer or terrain helps get a couple storms going and outflow from those get other storms going in the afternoon across CNY and the Southern Tier. Tonight, a surface trough moves through that helps spark off a round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. It is possible for a few of these thunderstorms to become severe as bulk shear is up over 40 knots in forecast soundings and lifted indexes getting below -5 along with elevated CAPE staying between 700 and 1400 J/kg through the night. Hail and wind would be the primary threats with the stronger storms. With the surface trough moving east of the region Saturday as well as no discernible 500 mb shortwave, there will not be anything to trigger storms. Dew points also fall a bit in the afternoon as some drier air advects in aloft and mixes down with day time heating. Precipitation chances were reduced and largely kept at a chance or higher in the Catskills down into the Poconos. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will continue to be slow to push east of the area Saturday night. Any lingering showers and or thunderstorms would be on the isolated side east of I-81. Humidity does ease a bit after the cold frontal passage resulting in slightly cooler nights with lows in the 60`s this weekend. Most locations should get well into the 80`s for highs on Sunday with more sunshine as high pressure builds into the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of the high already on Monday. A weak cold front looks to follow for Tuesday and Wednesday only slowly moving through the region. Modeled boundary layer temperatures show highs reaching 90 in most locations. Even just a slight increase in the humidity gets some locations in CNY close to a 95 degree heat index. Air temperatures look to trend slightly cooler Tuesday afternoon. However, with the increase in humidity another day with some locations in CNY pushing 95 for a heat index and a few spots in NE PA pushing 100 for a peak afternoon heat index. Muggy overnight lows not falling much below 70 as well. The weak cold front Tuesday and Wednesday looks to provide enough lift for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms likely with peak coverage each afternoon and evening. An early look with PW values indicates the atmosphere could be quite juicy for locally heavy downpours. Currently modeled 0-6km bulk shear of around 30 knots would indicate some potential for gusty winds with a few storms as well. Still plenty of time to dive into the details with this front. Temperatures should trend a little cooler Wednesday. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will be the predominant category at terminals over the next 24 hours. While there is fairly widespread cloud cover early this morning, small breaks in the clouds have resulted in quick fog development. With some clearing headed towards ELM, decided to put in some IFR vis for a few hours prior to sunrise. BGM, ITH, and even AVP may see some brief vis restrictions with patchy fog from rain today. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in western PA will be making its way east through the morning with AVP having a chance at seeing a few thunderstorms after 15Z. Rain should make its way as far north at BGM. The rest of the day after 18Z is uncertain as there will be spotty showers and thunderstorms with a low probability of an airport being impacted. Given the low chance, no showers or thunderstorms were added to the TAFs but if there is a direct impact IFR vis is possible due to heavy rain. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...AJG/JAB