Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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982 FXUS61 KBGM 051423 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1023 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another hot and muggy day expected with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. A weak front moves through tonight helping to move some of the moisture out of the region with Saturday looking drier especially later in the day. Hot and muggy weather returns next week with frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 1015 AM Update... Increased cloud cover across the area for the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours based on the latest GOES East Visible imagery and 12z HRRR. Guidance shows drier air mixing in and clouds finally breaking some by about 2-4 PM; but it will still be partly cloudy at best. An area of rain is moving across the Twin Tiers and western Catskills at this time. CAMs show thus area of light to moderate rain slowly translating east into the early afternoon, with perhaps a slight uptick in convective activity surrounding it. MLCAPE is low, just 100-200 J/Kg due to all the cloud cover and lack of surface heating thus far. This will beginning to increase toward 500-1000 J/Kg by late afternoon and evening as daytime heating increases low level lapse rates. The other story for today are the very high dew points in the low to mid-70s out there. This will certainly make it feel much hotter than the actual temperature. By late afternoon the heat index looks to peak around 90 for the valley locations in CNY, but up to 92-99 in the Wyoming Valley. Updated PoPs to better match the latest 12z HRRR for this evening and overnight. It appears there maybe two rounds of rain and t`storms. Number 1 in the evening hours from about 6-10 PM, moving across CNY then round two after midnight into the early hours of Saturday morning. 630 am update... Overall little change to the forecast. Adjusted chances of precipitation to match radar for the next couple of hours. Chances of rain were lowered slightly overnight as the 500 mb shortwave is a bit weaker but there is still plenty of instability. 315 AM Update... Cloudy skies overnight has helped keep temperatures warmer with most of the region still in the 70s early this morning. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have developed in central PA and will be moving into NEPA and the Southern Tier around mid to late morning. Temperatures for the late morning through the afternoon were lowered as there will likely be a cold pool left behind by the rain in the morning. Dew points were once again a little high with the NBM so some of the NBM 10th as well as the Canadian Reg were blended in to drop dew points from the mid 70s to low 70s. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the precipitation chances through the day as the morning rain will stabilize things but most forecast soundings do have CAPE recovering by the mid to late afternoon. Precipitation chances were kept through the afternoon despite CAMs not showing much. Soundings show a bit of CIN but it would not be too hard to be a degree or 2 warmer or terrain helps get a couple storms going and outflow from those get other storms going in the afternoon across CNY and the Southern Tier. Tonight, a surface trough moves through that helps spark off a round of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. It is possible for a few of these thunderstorms to become severe as bulk shear is up over 40 knots in forecast soundings and lifted indexes getting below -5 along with elevated CAPE staying between 700 and 1400 J/kg through the night. Hail and wind would be the primary threats with the stronger storms. With the surface trough moving east of the region Saturday as well as no discernible 500 mb shortwave, there will not be anything to trigger storms. Dew points also fall a bit in the afternoon as some drier air advects in aloft and mixes down with day time heating. Precipitation chances were reduced and largely kept at a chance or higher in the Catskills down into the Poconos. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will continue to be slow to push east of the area Saturday night. Any lingering showers and or thunderstorms would be on the isolated side east of I-81. Humidity does ease a bit after the cold frontal passage resulting in slightly cooler nights with lows in the 60`s this weekend. Most locations should get well into the 80`s for highs on Sunday with more sunshine as high pressure builds into the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of the high already on Monday. A weak cold front looks to follow for Tuesday and Wednesday only slowly moving through the region. Modeled boundary layer temperatures show highs reaching 90 in most locations. Even just a slight increase in the humidity gets some locations in CNY close to a 95 degree heat index. Air temperatures look to trend slightly cooler Tuesday afternoon. However, with the increase in humidity another day with some locations in CNY pushing 95 for a heat index and a few spots in NE PA pushing 100 for a peak afternoon heat index. Muggy overnight lows not falling much below 70 as well. The weak cold front Tuesday and Wednesday looks to provide enough lift for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms likely with peak coverage each afternoon and evening. An early look with PW values indicates the atmosphere could be quite juicy for locally heavy downpours. Currently modeled 0-6km bulk shear of around 30 knots would indicate some potential for gusty winds with a few storms as well. Still plenty of time to dive into the details with this front. Temperatures should trend a little cooler Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Fog developed at BGM but clouds kept much fog from developing around ELM. With some showers moving through, there is good chance of low end MVFR to barely IFR conditions at ELM and BGM through around 13Z before cigs rise with day time heating. Today there will be isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing but chances of one hitting an airport is low so no restrictions were added for the afternoon and evening. With calm winds tonight, fog development is likely for any location that sees rain today so with some rain moving through ITH, BGM, and ELM, some vis restrictions were introduced. There is a good chance that if fog develops it will become IFR or worse but due to uncertainty, just introduced MVFR for the rough timing of fog onset. Outlook... Saturday Into Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...AJG