Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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009 FXUS61 KBGM 060714 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 314 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms this morning will move east by the early afternoon with a drier air mass moving in later today. Temperatures will still be warm through the weekend but it will feel less muggy with the lower humidity. Heat continues into next week with chances of rain returning by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 315 AM Update... Showers and thunderstorms have developed across east central PA early this morning and will be moving into the Wyoming Valley through sunrise. Mesoanalysis shows a decent amount of most unstable CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) extending from the Chesapeake Bay up into PA helping to fuel these storms. 0-6 km shear with these storms is only around 20 to 25 knots though given the high CAPE severe storms are possible with strong winds and hail. Forecast soundings dont show too much cin and given the temperature at AVP was 77 degrees at 1 am it seems reasonable that some of the winds could punch through to the surface with any stronger downburst. So far despite tall cloud tops, storms have struggled to get any deep cores in order to get enough precipitation loading to get a microburst or downburst. Precipitable water values are currently over 1.5 inches with deep warm cloud depths so heavy rainfall rates are likely with any storm. Right now the storms are moving at a good pace and there has not been any training so far as of 3 am. The surface trough responsible for triggering these showers and thunderstorms will be moving east this morning with dry air advecting in. The dry air can be seen on water vapor imagery in central PA and as that moves in, day time heating will be able to mix some of it down with dew points falling this afternoon. Soil moisture will likely be fairly high with the rainfall this morning so areas that see more than a quarter inch of rain may take more time to dry out. The Finger Lakes into CNY will have a 500 mb shortwave pass through this afternoon coupled with a 250 mb jet streak with the HREF showing between 400 and 900 J/kg of surface based CAPE developing so a few isolated thunderstorms are likely. The lack of good instability will limit the severe potential with the afternoon storms but given the high shear, higher lifted condensation levels, and steep low level lapse rates, a small potential exist for severe wind gusts if any storm can get a deep enough core. The dry air in the mid levels and skinny cape depicted in forecast soundings will really lead to dry air entrainment with the storms so many will struggle to develop much above 15,000 to 20,000 feet. Once the shortwave is through this afternoon, ridging builds back in with flow aloft weakening and the 250 mb jet retreating northward. Dry air in the mid levels remains with surface high pressure building in so temperatures remain warm but mixing will help drop dew points into the mid to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 250 PM update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the typical summertime hot and humid conditions Sunday and Monday with a few weak thunderstorms kicking off Monday afternoon. Weak/broad upper level ridge with gradual rising heights aloft will lead to widespread suppression over the region Sunday and Sun night with quiet weather. Precipitation chances are less than 5% for the entire forecast area of central NY and northeast PA. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to remain in the mid to upper 80s in NY and into the upper 80s and lower 90s in ne PA. Humidity values should be mostly tolerable with dew points in the lower to mid 60s. Another night of mild temperatures Sun night/Mon morning with lows bottoming out in the 60s. On Monday, a stronger push of the hot and humid air mass from the south will occur which will allow high temperatures to rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s for much of the region. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s will make it feel just slightly hotter, but still rather uncomfortable. The increased amount of moisture and instability advecting into the region should lead to slightly higher chances (10 to 15%) of thunderstorms by the afternoon. Coverage of any storm that does form should be isolated, the duration should be brief and the intensity should be weak. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 250 PM update... Low chances (10 to 20%) of showers and storms continue Monday night as the upper short wave to the west gradually moves eastward into a moist and unstable air mass. The overall forcing during the night should be weak enough to keep storm intensity to a minimum. As Tuesday wears on the boundary layer will heat up once again and dew points will climb into the lower 70s, which will make it feel like the lower 90s. Much of the region will be under the influence of the approach upper wave to the west, amidst the deep moisture, which will induce widespread showers and storms (40-60% chance) later in the day Tuesday into Tue night. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with respect to how far east the trough axis/short wave will move. If the boundary hangs back to the west, then a greater area of showers and storms will be possible (30-45% chance) through the day Wednesday. If the system is more progressive then chances will be 10-25% lower, especially over the western Finger Lakes. It appears milder air will move in late Wed into Thu with highs only into the lower 80s along with lower humidity. However, cannot rule out a few scattered showers and storms pretty much any day later next week. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form near AVP so the timing of thunderstorms was moved up. The showers and thunderstorms have so far stayed NW of SYR and RME and that trend looks to continue so IFR was taken out of the TAFs as chances are now lower through 12Z. ELM, ITH, and BGM should be clipped by the north edge of the thunderstorms so mainly rain showers are expected with lightning staying south this morning. Drier air moves in behind this mornings round of showers and thunderstorms with cigs scattering out and VFR conditions returning shortly after 12Z for all terminals. VFR conditions will then persist into tonight with only a slim chance at a shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of ITH, SYR, and RME this afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night...Isolated thunderstorms, then areas of fog overnight with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...AJG/MPK