Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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038 FXUS61 KBGM 080004 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 804 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain overhead into Monday before giving way to our next chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This front then looks to stall out leading to additional chances of showers and thunderstorms for most of next week with the remnants of Beryl tracking northeastward as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 630 PM Update... Minor changes were needed this update, make tweaks to temperatures and dew points using current observations. Used satellite imagery to update sky grids to show more cloud cover over the western portion of our region. Otherwise previous forecast remains on track. 325 PM Update... High pressure will remain over the area tonight keeping conditions dry and calm. The fair weather CU that has developed this afternoon will gradually clear and winds will remain light. This should set things up for areas of valley fog to return overnight and into early tomorrow morning. Lows overnight will be in low to mid 60s. Tomorrow is expected to be another quiet day with sunshine becoming mixed with some clouds as surface high pressure weakens and shifts east. The flow will turn south-southwesterly and temperatures will be on the rise, but winds do remain pretty light. High temperatures Monday are expected to range from the mid 80s in the higher terrain to the low 90s, and with an uptick in dewpoints, heat index values can approach the mid 90s in the valley locations of CNY and the mid to upper 90s in portions of NE PA. Confidence remains low on needing any heat advisories this day, but the chances of heat headlines increase for Tuesday. Even with no headlines in place tomorrow, it will feel noticeably hotter compared to this afternoon. With the uptick in moisture tomorrow, there can be a stray shower or thunderstorm that pops up later in the day or Monday night, mainly in the higher terrain of NE PA and the Catskills, but PoPs are very low at less than 20 percent. It will be warm and muggy Monday night with lows from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 348 PM Update This period will feature active weather, with the main concerns being the heat and increasing humidity Tuesday into Wednesday; along with the potential for torrential rainfall Wednesday and Wednesday night as the remnants of tropical storm Beryl move toward the area. A Bermuda High and corresponding upper level ridge will be over the area on Tuesday. This will bring a hot and muggy south-southwest flow into the region. 1000-500mb thicknesses reach 576dm over NE PA, and 850mb temperatures are a stifling +20C. This supports daytime highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s over the CWA, and with dew points in the mid-60s to lower 70s it will feel even hotter out there. Maximum heat indices looks to reach well into the 90s for the Valleys of Central NY, and perhaps even low 100s in NE PA. If confidence in this heat/humidity continues to increase heat advisories would be needed for portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, Tuesday will be partly sunny with just a stray shower or t`storm possible. Tuesday night remains quiet and muggy with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected. Atmospheric moisture continues to increase on Wednesday as the deep southerly flow pumps in increasing PWATs (up to 2.25") out ahead of the remnants of Beryl. This post tropical system will interact with an upper level trough over the Central Great Lakes, and a weak surface warm frontal boundary draped over the area. This boundary looks to add lift and become a catalyst for shower and thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. With dew points in the low to mid-70s, PWATs up to 3 stdev above average any daytime heating will allow MLCAPE of 800-1500 J/Kg to develop. This will again bring likely showers and thunderstorms as the atmosphere further destabilized. Warm cloud layer depth up to 13k ft agl indicates the added potential for very efficient warm rain processes during this time, and therefore high rainfall rates. WPC has our entire CWA now under a slight risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday into Wednesday night. It will be subtropical out there, with very muggy and warm conditions...highs reach well into the 80s and perhaps even low 90s for the Wyoming Valley region. The same setup continues into Wednesday night as basically a tropical air mass remains in place. Wind shear increases as the current track of the remnant low is off to our west; placing Central NY/ NE PA in a favorable area for convective development and strong low level shear. Confidence in this low track remains low through, and this could change. Right now the official forecast calls for lows in the upper 60s to low 70s...but it`s possible it stays in the low to mid-70s all night. Rainfall totals are tough to pin down this far out in time; but the potential is there for 1-2 inches of rain and certainly some localized higher amounts as well. We will continue to monitor this heavy rain and flash flooding potential very closely in the coming days. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 348 PM Update This period starts off with more active weather as the deep moisture plume from the low/remnants of Beryl may still be in place over at least the eastern half of the forecast area. This looks to exit off to the east sometime on Thursday, but timing is uncertain. Dew points, pwats and overall moisture profiles remain high early on Thursday, then slowly decrease from west to east later in the day. It will still be warm and humid with highs in the low to mid-80s. The Friday and Saturday time period should feature mainly quieter weather. However, there is a lingering stream of moisture on the western side of a developing Bermuda high that will need to be watched closely for heavy rain potential. Most of the latest guidance keeps this just off to our south and east...but it could still shift into our area. As of right now this boundary is expected to remain close enough to bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms each of these days. However, the humidity level does drop some, as dew points fall back into the mid and upper 60s (as opposed to 70s as mentioned above for Wednesday/Thursday). Temperatures are steady, with daytime highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s. An early look shows Sunday featuring drier weather and highs back between 85-90. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions and light/variable winds are expected overnight as fair wx cu dissipates. Areas of valley fog will develop, especially in the Susquehanna Basin, with ELM having the highest chance for fog despite this past morning`s no-show. All MOS guidance is pointing towards some light fog at ITH as well, despite lack of rainfall in the preceding 24 hours, though the cross-over temp looks achievable, so a TEMPO for BR has been added to the TAF there, though confidence is low. After any morning fog, VFR conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period with light south to southwest winds developing. Outlook... Monday night into Tuesday morning...Mainly VFR. Tuesday afternoon Through Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK NEAR TERM...DK/ES SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MJM AVIATION...DK/MPH