955
WTNT32 KNHC 072049
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

...BERYL FORECAST TO BRING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODING
AND STRONG WINDS TO TEXAS OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 95.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el
Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

The Storm Surge Watch from North of Baffin Bay, Texas to North
Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine
Pass, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston
Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio
Grande
* The Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 95.5 West. Beryl is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn
toward the north forecast on Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl is expected to make landfall on the middle Texas
coast early Monday. Beryl is forecast to turn northeastward and move
farther inland over eastern Texas and Arkansas late Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is expected, and Beryl is forecast to
become a hurricane again tonight. Additional strengthening is
expected before Beryl reaches the Texas coast early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area by early Monday.  Winds are first expected to reach tropical
storm strength by late today, making outdoor preparations difficult
or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
early Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning by tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning areas in south Texas starting within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area along the upper Texas coast early Monday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port O`Connor, TX to San Luis Pass, TX...4-7 ft
Matagorda Bay...4-7 ft
San Luis Pass, TX to High Island, TX...4-6 ft
Galveston Bay...4-6 ft
Mesquite Bay, TX to Port O`Connor, TX...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL:  Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts
of 15 inches is expected across portions of the middle and upper
Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas through Monday night.
Considerable flash and urban flooding as well as minor to isolated
major river flooding is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Storm Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes could occur along the middle and upper
Texas Coast through tonight, and across eastern Texas into Louisiana
and Arkansas on Monday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Beryl are expected to affect eastern
Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. during the next day
or two.  These swells are expected to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake