711
WTNT42 KNHC 070244
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Beryl has not changed much over the past few hours.  Satellite
images still show that the storm has a compact central dense
overcast pattern, and radar and dropsonde data from the NOAA
aircraft indicate that the circulation remains tilted to the
northwest with height.  Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft have reported a slight drop in minimum pressure to 993 mb,
but the flight-level wind data suggest that the initial intensity is
still around 50 kt.

The storm is moving northwestward at 11 kt on the western periphery
of a mid-level ridge.  A turn to the north-northwest with a slight
decrease in forward speed is expected as the system moves toward a
trough over the south-central U.S., taking the core of Beryl to the
middle Texas coast early Monday morning.  The shifts in the models
have been decreasing, and the new NHC track forecast is just a touch
to the right of the previous one through landfall.  After landfall,
a faster motion to the north and northeast is predicted.

Beryl is currently in an environment of about 10 to 15 kt of
southerly vertical wind shear and surrounded by dry air, especially
on the south side of the circulation. However, the storm is expected
to move into an area of decreasing wind shear, and the global models
show the moisture increasing near the core.  In fact, the SHIPS
model shows the shear decreasing to very low levels (less than 5 kt)
just prior to Beryl reaching the coast.  These conditions combined
with a diffluent upper-level wind pattern should support notable
strengthening just prior to landfall.  In fact, the hurricane
regional models HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON all show only gradual
strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, followed by significant
intensification just hours before Beryl makes landfall.  Based on
the guidance and large-scale factors, there is a chance of rapid
intensification if Beryl becomes better vertically aligned, and it
is possible that it strengthens more between the 24- and 36-h
predictions.

It is important to note that the average NHC track error at 36
hours is about 50-60 miles and the average intensity error is close
to one category.  Users are reminded to consider these uncertainties
when using the forecast information.


Key Messages:

1.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
late Sunday night and Monday along the coast of Texas from the north
entrance to the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island,
including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.
Residents in those areas should follow any advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the lower and middle Texas coast late Sunday night and
Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay to Sargent.
Preparations should be rushed to completion before tropical storm
conditions begin late Sunday.

3. Flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
considerable, is likely across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and
eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week.
River flooding is also possible.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed
warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials
before venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 24.7N  94.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 25.7N  95.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 27.1N  96.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 28.8N  96.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 48H  09/0000Z 30.7N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/1200Z 32.6N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  10/0000Z 34.5N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  11/0000Z 37.8N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/0000Z 41.3N  84.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi