574
AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 21N southward, moving
westward 20 knots to 25 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the
east of the tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of the
tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 15N17W, to 10N30W to 08N49W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the south of the
monsoon trough, and from 10N southward from 55W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from a 33N53W Atlantic Ocean 1028 mb high
pressure center, through 29N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, through
Florida near 28N82W, to 27N92W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the Deep
South of Texas. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf waters. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near
25N93W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 17N to
23N between 95W and 99W, in the coastal plains and in the coastal
waters of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
off the NW coast of Cuba. Some small areas of developing
rainshowers, and other areas of weakening convective
precipitation, cover the rest of the area.

Slight seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the Gulf.

High pressure will extend from the western Atlantic into the
northern Gulf of Mexico through early next week, supporting mainly
gentle winds and slight seas. Unstable atmospheric conditions
with periods of active weather will persist across the northern
Gulf through Fri as an upper trough continues to the N of the
basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to near-rough seas are from 12N to the Windward Passage
between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are elsewhere between Puerto
Rico and 80W. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the central one-third of
the area. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the remainder of
the Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 11N75W in Colombia, beyond southern
Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 19/0000 UTC, are: 0.12 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The pressure gradient between an Atlantic high pressure ridge
extending along roughly 30N and lower pressure across South
America is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds over the
central Caribbean, with mainly moderate seas. Winds and seas will
diminish slightly tonight through early Sat as a pair of tropical
waves move through the basin. The tradewinds and associated seas
will increase again Sat through Mon as high pressure builds again
in the wake of the tropical waves.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow, and
isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation,
between 60W and Florida.

A surface trough passes through 31N30W, to 28N34W, and to 26N42W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side
of the surface trough.

A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 33N53W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 42W westward.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are from 20N to 24N between 54W and
63W, and within 120 nm to the north of the coast of Hispaniola
between 70W and the Windward Passage. Fresh NE to E winds are
elsewhere from 12N to 28N between 30W and 65W; and from 24N
southward between 65W and 75W. Moderate to near-rough seas are
from 20N to 24N between 45W and 55W. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W eastward. Slight seas are
from 70W westward.

The Bermuda-Azores High will extend east to west along roughly
30N through Tue. This pattern will support moderate to fresh
easterly winds south of 26N, with winds pulsing to strong during
the late afternoon and evening off the northern coast of
Hispaniola.

$$
mt