412
AXNT20 KNHC 191707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Jul 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are seen near the
trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 22N,
moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered showers are observed from
13N to 23N and between 60W and 73W. The storm activity is also
affecting Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward
Islands. These storms may produce heavy downpours, lightning and
gusty winds.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 20N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted south of 20N and west of 75W, also affecting
portions of Central America and northern Colombia. Gusty winds and
higher seas are possible near the stronger storms.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and continues to 11N30W and to 05N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N and
between 25W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf coast resulting in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern
Gulf waters. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports
light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas. However, gusty
winds and higher seas are possible near the stronger storms.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will extend westward
across Florida and the northern Gulf through early next week
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas.
Pulsing moderate to fresh winds are expected near and to the NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening and night hours due to
local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea.
Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details.

A broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic
extends into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much of the
basin, especially between 12N to 20N. Stronger winds are likely
occurring near the isolated thunderstorms in the NW and SW
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, with mainly
moderate seas. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through
early Sat as a tropical wave moves through the basin. The trade
winds and associated seas will increase again Sat through Mon,
diminishing some Tue and increasing again Tue night in the wake
of the tropical wave.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergence aloft is producing a few showers over the SW North
Atlantic, especially west of 75W. The rest of the basin is under
the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge centered over the
central Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 28N and
between 55W and 70W. This is the result of moderate pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and a tropical wave in
the eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.

In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong northerly
winds are occurring off Western Sahara and Morocco, primarily
north of 16N and east of 20W. Seas are 4-6 ft in the area
described. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are found
south of the monsoon trough and east of 35W, along with seas of
4-7 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge will extend
from a 1027 mb high located N of the area near 32N53W west-
southwestward to across central Florida. The related gradient will
support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 26N, with winds
pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and evenings off the
northern coast of Hispaniola into next week.

$$
Delgado