198
AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W from 21N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 08N to 11N between 41W and 45W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from 22N southward,
and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is noted near the eastern Dominican Republic.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 18N southward
across Miskito Cays and eastern Costa Rica into the East Pacific
Ocean. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are occurring near Costa Rica and western Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near the Banc d`Arguin National Park, then extends southwestward
through 14N30W to 09N46W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N46W
to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the
trough from 06N to 11N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and
30W, and within 60 nm of 05N35W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring up to 40 nm along either side of
the ITCZ between 45W and 52W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the
Caribbean waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough stretching
southward from Florida across the Florida Straits to western Cuba
is generating similar weather near the Florida Keys and western
Cuba, including the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high
over the northeastern Gulf dominates much of the Gulf. Moderate
with locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at
the Bay of Campeche and southeastern Gulf, including the Yucatan
Channel. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas are seen at the
north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE
winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the high will continue to dominate the Gulf
through early next week, supporting mainly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh winds are expected
tonight off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The Atlantic Ridge near 27N sustains a trade-wind pattern for the
entire Caribbean Sea. Refer to the Tropical Waves sections for
convection in the region. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas
at 7 to 9 ft are found at the southern basin. Gentle to moderate
NE to ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern
basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft
prevail for rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between the Atlantic Ridge
and lower pressure in South America will continue to allow fresh
to strong trade winds over most of the southwestern basin through
Sun, and over the central basin through midweek while expanding
in coverage. Fresh winds will pulse at night in the Windward
Passage through Tue. A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is
accompanied by scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds. The wave
is forecast to reach the western basin Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Divergent flow associated with an upper-level low near 21N56W is
causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just north
of the Virgin and northern Leeward Islands. Convergent southerly
winds are producing similar conditions off central Florida. Refer
to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon/ITCZ, sections for additional
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

A large 1029 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle to moderate ENE
to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W
and the Florida/Georgia coast, except fresh to strong ESE winds
with 6 to 8 ft seas near the central and southeast Bahamas. Near
the Canary Islands, moderate with locally fresh NNE winds and
and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest
Africa coast and 30W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, Light to gentle
winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail north of 10N between the
central Africa coast and 30W. In the tropical Atlantic from 10N to
20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to
ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. Gentle to moderate with
locally fresh southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong E winds are
pulsing offshore Hispaniola. E swell with seas up to 9 ft is
reaching the Turks and Caicos an southeast Bahamas tonight, but
this swell will decay Sun. The Bermuda High will build
southwestward toward Florida over the next several days.
Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola is associated with the northern periphery of a
Caribbean tropical wave

$$

Chan