530
AXNT20 KNHC 151029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 23N southward,
and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 23W and 33W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 21N southward,
and moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 44W and 54W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W from eastern Cuba to
Colombia. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in and near the Windward Passage and just
N of eastern Cuba.

A western Caribbean tropical wave along 89W has nearly exited the
basin into Honduras, Nicaragua, and the eastern Pacific Ocean.
However, a small part of its axis is still over the Gulf of
Honduras, and is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, including waters
near the Bay Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara/Mauritania, then continues southwestward across
14N35W to 09N56W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest
analysis. Scattered moderate convection has developed within 60 nm
of the monsoon trough, to the E of 20W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered moderate convection across Caribbean waters near Costa
Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection
eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high centered just
southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana, continues to dominate most
of the Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft are over the SE Gulf, otherwise, mainly light winds and seas
less than 2 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the week supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly
slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are found at the
south-central and portions of the SW basin. Elsewhere across the
basin, mainly moderate E winds prevail with seas of 4 to 7 ft. See
the tropical waves and monsoon trough sections above for
information on convection in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure
and lower pressure in South America will continue to sustain
fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through
the week. Fresh winds will pulse tonight in the Windward Passage.
A tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 75W will move
across the remainder of the basin through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough northeast of the Lesser Antilles is generating
scattered moderate convection from 23N to 27N between 57W and 64W.
Refer to the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. An expansive surface
ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure center E of Bermuda is
dominating much of the basin, leading to gentle to moderate mainly
E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas N of 20N and W of 30W. Farther E,
mainly fresh NE to N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are impacting waters
from the Canary Islands to the African coast. Lighter winds and
lesser seas are occurring south of this area, including in the
vicinity of the Cabo Verde Islands. Between the monsoon trough and
20N, mainly moderate E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail.
Farther S, gentle mainly southerly winds prevail, with moderate
seas in mixed swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge
will extend southwestward to central Florida into late week. Winds
are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the southeastern
waters starting late on Wed as the high pressure strengthens some,
and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. The
northern portion of a tropical wave that is along 75W and S of 22N
will continue westward reaching the Straits of Florida Tue, with
scattered thunderstorms accompanying it.

$$
Konarik